Headlines from the Labor Department's June inflation report have provided President Joe Biden with a political boost as he tries to convince voters they are better off under his leadership before next year's elections.
But despite consumer prices increasing by only 3% compared to 9.1% 12 months ago, underlying economic data indicates "Bidenomics" still has some work to do as the president promotes his policies on the campaign trail.
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No matter how Biden and "corporate media" spin the numbers, voters know "big government Bidenomics is failing,” according to former Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-KS).
“Inflation is up, real wages are down, and most Americans are worse off than before," the former House Tea Party Caucus chairman told the Washington Examiner. "Government is rapidly growing and, as a result, opportunities and freedom for hard-working Americans is shrinking.”
Republicans are not rooting for inflation or a recession, but "clearly" decreasing prices and unemployment are "generally helpful" to Biden's reelection prospects, per GOP strategist Alex Conant.
"Voters' opinions on the economy tend to lag the latest market data and there's a lot of uncertainty right now," he said. "As we've seen over the last three years, economic conditions can change very quickly. Bottom line: It's too soon to say how the latest economic data will impact the 2024 election."
Inflation rose by 0.2% in June to increase by 3% compared to a year ago, the lowest level since March 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday. Simultaneously, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% and 4.8%, the lowest level since October 2021 after an annual high of 6.6% last September. But the cost of shelter, which underpins the consumer price index, rose by 0.4% last month for a yearly increase of 7.8%.
In response, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel criticized Biden's economic policies, tapping into the president's average net negative 19 percentage point approval rating regarding the economy, 39% to 57%.
“It will take American families and workers a long time to recover from Bidenomics as they struggle with the reality of higher costs for everything," she said. "Voters will make Biden a one-term president because he continues to lie to Americans and refuses to take responsibility for his failed agenda."
"Core inflation is at an outrageously high 4.8%," RNC spokesman Tommy Pigott added. "Real wages are 3% lower than when Biden took office. Year-over-year inflation is still higher than at any point since December 2011 and above the [Federal Reserve's] target" of 2%.
The White House Council of Economic Advisers conceded June's monthly inflation rate of 0.2% was "higher than May’s 0.1 %" but contended that "monthly data can be noisy and obscure underlying trends."
"There are three ways households experience relief from high inflation: disinflation [or] slower inflation, deflation [or] falling prices, and real wage gains," the council wrote. "From the perspective of overall inflation, as opposed to core inflation, which omits food and energy prices, all three are in play in the current economy."
As the White House circulated economic charts among political allies, Biden asserted June's inflation report was "new and encouraging evidence" prices have decreased steadily during the last year while the broader economy "remains strong" and unemployment is at "near record lows."
"Real wages for the average American worker are now higher than they were before the pandemic, with lower wage workers seeing the largest gains," he said. "Our progress creating jobs while lowering costs for families is no accident, and I will continue to fight for lower costs for families every day."
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Meanwhile, White House National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard called on corporations "to bring their markups back down" during an Economic Club of New York address. There, Brainard underscored the success of Bidenomics, described as the opposite of Reaganomics trickle-down economic policy, and touted the president's agenda of investing in infrastructure, semiconductors, and clean energy, educating and "empowering" workers, and encouraging competition and decreasing costs.
"Despite repeated forecasts that recession is just around the corner, the U.S. recovery is solid, and inflation is down," she said. "The president is committed to execute this three-part strategy in a manner that is fiscally sustainable by ensuring that our long-term investments are responsibly financed by a tax system that is fair."