For months, many political insiders have been operating under the assumption that President Joe Biden will run in 2024. Now, some of his allies are reportedly planning for the seemingly implausible possibility he drops out.
Though Biden has made moves to lay the groundwork for a campaign debut, such as recent campaign-style stops in Florida and Wisconsin, he scarcely talks about his 2024 plans with confidants, keeping his focus trained more on the day-to-day duties of the presidency instead, sources told Politico.
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“An inertia has set in,” one Biden confidant told the news outlet. “It’s not that he won’t run, and the assumption is that he will. But nothing is decided. And it won’t be decided until it is.”
There would be a political earthquake if Biden dropped out of the race. He would become the first Democratic president to step down since former President Lyndon Johnson. The Democratic Party's lack of a clear alternative makes the situation all the more pressing.
Lingering questions about Vice President Kamala Harris's viability in both a primary and a general election contest loom large. Therefore, if Biden steps aside, Democrats would likely be thrust into a messy primary that heavyweight contenders had not anticipated.
Some big names, such as Govs. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), J.B. Pritzker (D-IL), and Phil Murphy (D-NJ) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), have been eyed as possible alternatives to Biden if he steps aside. So far, his main primary opponent is shaping up to be spiritual guru Marianne Williamson, who lacks experience in office.
Still, most aides and Democratic strategists view the prospect of Biden stepping aside as unlikely.
Biden had been widely expected to launch his reelection bid "not long after" delivering his State of the Union address, but his advisers are now reportedly anticipating that announcement may get kicked to April, but that time frame is somewhat fluid.
The president has also publicly maintained that he "intends" to run, and he has reportedly received a blessing for a second run from first lady Jill Biden. Despite this, he still has not declared.
Looming over his decision is former President Donald Trump, who launched his campaign last November. In public, many of Biden's allies, such as former White House chief of staff Ron Klain, have stressed that Biden is the best hope for Democrats to dispatch Trump in 2024.
Shortly after Trump launched his campaign, some of Biden's allies felt pressure to kick up preparations for a reelection campaign, but that raw urgency has seemingly dried up a bit over recent weeks, per the report.
This is partly due to the lack of a strong possible Democratic primary challenger and GOP infighting. Additionally, Biden's delay of an announcement helps avert the need to sign paperwork that would show fundraising totals for the first quarter, which are reportedly less than stellar.
Additionally, Biden juggled a somewhat busy schedule over recent weeks, including this week, when he made an unannounced stop in Ukraine. He had entered the new year with political capital fresh off the Democrats' strong showing in the midterm elections but has since been forced to contend with multiple problems, such as the possible debt ceiling crisis.
“We’re not going to have a campaign until we have to,” a Biden adviser told Politico. “He’s the president. Why does he need to dive into an election early?”
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Amid the limbo, Biden's allies have slowly been working to spot talent to beef up his campaign staff, and the Future Forward political action committee, which is aligned with him, has been rolling out TV ads to boost his agenda.
The components of a campaign apparatus are largely in motion — all that is missing is the declaration.