President Joe Biden‘s campaign on Monday released a new television advertisement in several battleground states targeting former President Donald Trump’s status as a convicted felon. The video concludes with the line: “This election is between a convicted criminal who is only out for himself and a president who is fighting for your family.”
Unfortunately for Democrats, this campaign strategy to leverage Trump’s legal troubles has already been shown to have a limited effect on the election.
Before the New York trial’s verdict, there were predictions that a conviction would dramatically alter the state of the presidential race. A CNN poll from April found that 24% of Republicans were open to reconsidering their support for Trump after a conviction. However, the numbers since the conclusion of the trial have proven to be less dramatic. According to a Monmouth University poll, only 11% of Republicans agreed with the verdict, while 66% disagreed.
However, this same poll did indicate that 21% of independents stated they were less likely to support Trump as a result of his conviction. But it is not certain whether these voters will support Biden or if they were open to supporting Trump before the trial’s verdict. When looking at more concrete shifts in voter behavior, a recent poll by the New York Times shows that Trump’s overall lead shifted from +3 to +1. This shift demonstrates that the conviction may alter voters’ behaviors but is far from being electorally decisive.
The minimal impact of Trump’s conviction reflects a broader skepticism of the New York case’s legitimacy. The Monmouth poll indicated that 57% of voters believed the charges were politically motivated, including 60% of independents. Beyond this, Hunter Biden’s recent conviction could balance the scales in voters’ eyes as the Biden family’s relationship with the law comes into question.
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Voters’ priorities are on other topics, especially in battleground states. A CBS News/YouGov poll revealed that 80% of swing-state voters considered the economy as a top issue, with 6 out of 10 voters asserting that the economy is bad. Looking back on Trump’s presidency, CNN reported 55% of voters saw it as a success, compared to the 61% who viewed Biden’s presidency as a failure so far. Fundamentals like these are much more likely to affect voters’ final decisions on Election Day.
It remains to be seen what other events will occur before November. The debates, the sentencing of Trump, party conventions, foreign crises, and more could intervene to change the election’s trajectory. In the end, it is likely that despite the Biden campaign’s wishes, topics other than Trump’s felony status will become the decisive factors in this election.