A week after betting markets determined Pete Hegseth’s nomination for secretary of defense to be doomed, his Cabinet bid has renewed viability, and his odds to be confirmed by the Senate have skyrocketed.
On Dec. 4, Polymarket betting odds gave Hegseth an 11% chance of being confirmed. On Wednesday, his odds stand at 69%.
Rise, fall, and rise again: Hegseth’s journey
When President-elect Donald Trump announced Hegseth as his nominee for secretary of defense, his initial odds on Nov. 13 were 89%, but with increased volume and mixed reactions, including criticism of him being an “unqualified” Fox News host, they dropped to 49% by the end of the day.
The rest of the week, his Polymarket odds to be confirmed bounced between 70% and 81% before dropping to 50% on Nov. 20, a couple of days after Hegseth was accused of sexual misconduct. He claimed the incident in question was consensual. His odds stayed between 50% and 63% until Dec. 2, when they dropped to 31%.
On Dec. 3, his betting odds plummeted to 12% and bottomed out at 11% the next day before crawling back up to the mid-40% range a few days later. Hegseth’s Dec. 2-4 drop coincided with his trip to Capitol Hill to plead his case, as many news outlets reported his nomination was in jeopardy.
After meeting with Hegseth, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) opened the door to supporting his confirmation on Monday afternoon. She faced massive pressure from Trump allies to support the pick after expressing initial skepticism. That night, his odds shot up to around 70%, at which they have remained ever since.
Hegseth has been aggressive in going on offense to defend his name after accusations of sexual misconduct and alcohol abuse came to light. He vowed not to drink while serving as secretary of defense, his mother went on Fox News to make the case that he is a “changed man,” and most recently, he got ahead of ProPublica, which he says “is planning to publish a knowingly false report that I was not accepted to West Point in 1999,” by posting his acceptance letter on X. The story was pulled when ProPublica acknowledged it had received incorrect information from West Point, but the aggressive tactics by Hegseth showed he was prepared to fight for his nomination.
What the odds say about Trump’s other picks
Every one of Trump’s nominees has a greater than 50% chance of being confirmed by the Senate, but four picks stand out as the most likely to be rejected, according to the betting odds. The nominees with the worst odds are Hegseth, 69%, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, 69%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 73%, and Kash Patel, 79%.
Gabbard was nominated to be director of national intelligence, Kennedy to head the Department of Health and Human Services, and Patel to be the next FBI director. Each has faced intense criticism from both sides of the aisle.
While no candidate has less than a 69% chance of being confirmed as of Wednesday, the odds show that statistically, one or two of Trump’s picks will likely be rejected.
Every other Trump nominee, except agriculture secretary pick Brooke Rollins, 90%, and labor secretary pick Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR), 89%, have between a 93% and 97% chance of being confirmed.
Some nominees whose confirmations are considered foregone conclusions, according to the betting odds, include Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), 97%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee, 95%, Scott Bessent, 95%, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), 94%, former Rep. Lee Zeldin, 94%, and Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD), 93%.
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Before his nomination for attorney general was withdrawn, former Rep. Matt Gaetz was given roughly between a 20% and 30% chance of being confirmed by the Senate. Before ending his bid, Gaetz’s odds never reached the 11%-12% bottom that Hegseth saw last week. Pam Bondi, Trump’s new attorney general pick, has a 94% chance.
Betting markets have been historically accurate at predicting presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections. However, it remains to be seen whether that accuracy carries over to Trump administration confirmations.