The stage is set for November in Michigan’s battleground Senate race, with Tuesday’s primaries teeing up a general election contest between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and former House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers.
The “toss-up” race to replace retiring longtime Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) could determine party control of the Senate as Democrats fight to retain their one-seat margin.
Both candidates glided to victory in their respective primaries and ultimately faced minimal competition after receiving support from the campaign arms of Senate Republicans and Senate Democrats.
With just 6% of the vote tallied, Rogers was around 70% of the vote, compared to about 12% for Republican-turned-libertarian former Rep. Justin Amash and less than 10% for physician Sherry O’Donnell.
Slotkin was at 75% with 9% of the vote tallied shortly after 9 p.m. when the Associated Press called the race. Actor and small business owner Hill Harper was at 25%.
Recent polling gives Slotkin a several-point advantage, but it remains within the margin of error. Democrats must retain both the seat and the White House to keep the Senate majority.
A significant element favoring Slotkin is her status as a fundraising juggernaut. She’s outraised Rogers by a nearly 5-to-1 margin so far, raking in $24 million this cycle with $8.7 million cash on hand compared to his $5.4 million raised and $2.5 million in the bank.
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But Rogers comes with his own advantages. He’s looking to clinch a Michigan Senate seat for Republicans in what would be the first time in two decades. With an open seat, thanks to the retirement of Stabenow, who is 74 and was first elected to the upper chamber in 2000, Republicans see their greatest opportunity in decades to flip the state.
The race was downgraded for Democrats in the Great Lakes State from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up” by the nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report due to President Joe Biden’s potential down-ballot drag before he ended his campaign. Slotkin was among the Democrats who sounded the alarm over Biden’s ability to beat former President Donald Trump, who endorsed Rogers.