The battle for control of the House in 2024 is shaping to be an overall toss-up, with a slight edge for Republicans, a new race rating found.
Of the 435 seats up for grabs, 212 lean toward Republicans by some degree, while 201 hew toward Democrats by some gradation, and 22 seats are clear toss-ups, according to an analysis from the nonpartisan Sabato's Crystal Ball.
REPUBLICANS HOLD SLIGHT ADVANTAGE IN RACE FOR HOUSE CONTROL IN FIRST RATINGS FOR 2024 CYCLE
"After consecutive election cycles in which the favored side won the House, but by significantly smaller margins than many (including us) expected, we want to be clear from the start how we’re viewing the House this cycle: The race for the majority begins as a Toss-up," the Sabato's Crystal Ball analysis said.
Sabato's Crystal Ball's analysis is similar to a recent Cook Political Report analysis released earlier this month that found Republicans with a slight edge but similarly concluded the brawl for the House will be very competitive in 2024.
Various impending developments ranging from redistricting to a Democratic gambit to reclaim lost seats in New York loom large as the conquest for the lower chamber slowly starts to take shape.
Both North Carolina and Ohio are poised to have new maps for the 2024 cycle that are expected to be more advantageous for Republicans than the ones used in the midterm elections.
On top of Republican pickup opportunities from redistricting in 2024, there was a handful of seats in favorable districts that Republicans lost in 2022 that could be prime for the taking in the next cycle.
Republicans had been expected to surf a smashing red wave in the midterm elections but ultimately fell far short of expectations and only managed to finagle a threadbare majority in the House amid concerns about abortion and candidate quality. As a result, Democrats only need five seats to retake the House.
A dramatic power shift in the House is less common in presidential cycles. Ten of the last 12 shifts took place in midterm elections, according to the analysis. Should the two parties split the 22 toss-up seats, Republicans would gain one seat, according to the report.
One of the saving graces for Republicans was a redistricting mishap in the Empire State last cycle in which Democrats sought to bypass the state redistricting commission, only to trigger a court intervention that spawned a new map that made the state much more competitive.
Democrats have been building up a war chest in hopes of helping the party reclaim some of its lost seats in New York.
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As Democrats scramble to retake the House, they will stare down one of the toughest Senate maps in decades, will be forced to defend 23 seats, three of which are held by Democratic-aligned independent senators, and Republicans will only have to defend 11.
While many of those seats are in Democratic stronghold states, the dynamic could stretch their resources thin. Meanwhile, the 2024 contest for the presidency is slowly beginning to heat up, with former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley becoming the first major Republican to challenge former President Donald Trump last week.