In 1915, Armenia suffered a genocide that killed anywhere from 50% to 80% of its population. It then endured an occupation by the Soviet Union that lasted almost a century. Now, the unrecognized Armenian area of Nagorno-Karabakh has collapsed under Azerbaijani force of arms.

Beginning in 2020, and significantly escalating after the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Azerbaijan has chipped away at the borders of this region, gradually encircling it. Last week, the Azerbaijanis seized the whole of Nagorno-Karabakh in just 24 hours.

Of the roughly 150,000 citizens of Nagorno-Karabakh, at least 50,000 have fled since last week’s invasion. The already congested Lachin corridor, for the past year the only way in and out of the isolated republic, has now become a humanitarian nightmare. Armenia has attempted to branch out diplomatically, seeking bolstered contacts with the U.S. and the EU in a bid to gain partners more effective than Russia.

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What's clear is that Russia is no longer an effective leader of the Collective Security Treaty Organization that includes Armenia. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are currently inching toward war over disputed water rights, the Tajiks backed by Iran and the Kyrgyz by Turkey. This plays into Turkey’s larger strategy to poach the CSTO members now fleeing the obsolete organization. Ankara’s dreams of a pan-Turkic alliance stretching from China to Istanbul are inching closer to reality.

Where does this leave Armenia?

Well, the nation of just under three million is in big trouble. The Azeris have, over the course of the week since their invasion, set their sights on the Zangezur Corridor, a narrow strip of land that splits the Azeri province of Nakhchivan, and by extension a direct link to Turkey, off from the rest of Azerbaijan. This is significant for a multitude of reasons, not the least because of Turkey’s ambitions of a Trans-Caspian pipeline to bring cheap oil from Azerbaijan to European markets.

For Armenia, however, losing the Zangezur Corridor would mean much more than just a simple loss of land. Without access to Iran, Armenia’s only international border would be with a hostile Turkey and Azerbaijan to its west, east, and south and an equally isolated Georgia to the north. Finding an ally that can secure not just its borders, but at this point, the existence of its nation, is of the highest Armenian priority.

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Aidan Springs is a rising junior at American University.