Republican Karrin Taylor Robson, considered a possible establishment candidate in the race for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) seat, said she won’t be running in 2024.
Robson ran in Arizona's gubernatorial race last year but lost the primary to former local television anchor Kari Lake, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Lake went on to lose the general election to Democrat Katie Hobbs.
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“Arizona voters will help determine control of the U.S. Senate in 2024, and it has been humbling to hear from Arizonans around the state who have urged me to enter this race,” Robson said in a statement. “However, while I may seek other opportunities to serve our state via elective office in the future, now is not the time.”
Robson added that she will “continue to be engaged with efforts to identify and elect strong conservatives to serve Arizona at all levels of government.”
Republicans in the state were not surprised by Robson’s Thursday announcement, especially with speculation that Lake could decide to run for the seat.
“For Robson to potentially face Lake again, that would just be absolutely miserable for her,” a Republican strategist in the state said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “Lake is the definition of crazy town, and I don’t know any well-respected Republican who wants to compete against her.”
The race for Sinema’s seat has become one of the most unpredictable of the cycle, with the Cook Political Report ranking the contest as a toss-up. Sinema left the Democratic Party last year to become an independent but has been evasive when asked about her plans for 2024.
She has not committed to running for a second term, instead saying her top priority is solving the troubles plaguing Arizona, a border state.
Progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) announced in January he would run for Senate in 2024, setting up a likely three-way race. The Republican field could take longer to develop due to Arizona's filing deadline, which is next April, and the state’s primaries aren’t until August 2024.
Lake, who spread Trump's claims of a stolen 2020 election, has publicly flirted with the idea of running for the Senate seat, worrying national Republicans who don’t think Arizona will be in play for the GOP if she enters.
While some local GOP operatives are unconvinced Lake is seriously considering a bid for Senate, national Republicans are bracing for an announcement.
The former gubernatorial candidate met with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee in early February, but it’s not clear what was discussed beyond the differences between running a gubernatorial campaign and one for Senate. The NRSC had no comment on Robson’s decision not to run.
Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb became the first Republican to enter the race last month, while others are eyeing a run. That list includes Blake Masters, who lost his Senate bid last year by 5 percentage points; Abraham Hamadeh, who lost the 2022 attorney general race; and businessman Jim Lamon, who lost the primary for Arizona’s other Senate seat in 2022.
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There has been some early talk of Lamb being a consensus candidate, although the primary field is still taking shape. The Republican ally of Trump has cast doubt on the integrity of the 2020 elections, which may have hurt both Lake and Masters in the state last cycle. While some strategists worry that could be an obstacle for him in a general election, one dismissed it.
“To the extent that he brings a professional team around him and runs a campaign that's designed to win, I have not heard anything overly negative about the guy, and if he surrounds himself with smart people, he's got as good a shot as anybody,” a national Republican strategist said on the condition of anonymity.