President Donald Trump’s looming tariffs on Mexican tomatoes have Republicans divided. 

A 21% tariff on tomato imports from Mexico is set to take effect later this month, as the Trump administration believes doing so will allow U.S. tomato growers “to compete fairly in the marketplace.” Given that Mexican-grown tomatoes account for roughly 70% of the U.S. market, the move could have significant ramifications, particularly for states such as Arizona, Texas, Florida, and California with a heavy stake in the industry.

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The new penalties on Mexico have drawn praise from some U.S. tomato producers, particularly in Florida, who argued they have been undercut by foreign tomato exporters promoting price suppression.

However, a group of Republican congressmen from Texas and Arizona recently expressed concern about imposing the tariffs in a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick that urged the president to “make a deal” instead of overhauling the tomato industry. 

“This is an opportunity for President Trump to do what he does best: make a deal. A fair agreement that strengthens American businesses, protects American jobs, and keeps food prices low is within reach,” wrote Reps. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), Tony Gonzales (R-TX), Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), and Eli Crane (R-AZ).

On July 14, the United States is set to withdraw from a decadeslong trade agreement with Mexico that has been renegotiated multiple times, most recently by Trump in 2019 during his first term. The 1996 Tomato Suspension Agreement governs the 4 billion pounds of tomatoes annually imported into the U.S. from Mexico.

As he terminates the agreement, Trump is setting a 21% tariff on Mexican tomatoes after U.S. growers, especially in Florida, have pressured Washington to end the TSA for years due to complaints that it failed to sufficiently penalize Mexico for “dumping” products, a practice they said negatively impacted pricing. 

“Since the agreement really began in 1996, Mexican tomato imports have surged … nearly 400%,” Robert Guenther, executive vice president of the Florida Tomato Exchange, a trade group that represents about half the fresh market tomatoes grown in the U.S., told National Public Radio in May, saying that the surge amounted to dumping. 

“The agreement was really supposed to stop unfair trade practices. Instead, it really enabled them through different violations such as price manipulation and constant circumvention,” he continued in comments that defended the capacity of U.S. producers to fill the void left by a dearth of Mexican suppliers.

But Biggs, Gonzales, Ciscomani, and Crane warned that cutting the agreement and enacting tariffs could be devastating for U.S. jobs in Arizona and Texas, which heavily rely on tomato trade with Mexico. 

“Ending the TSA risks 50,000 jobs in Texas and Arizona alone and burdens American families already struggling under [former President Joe Biden’s] inflationary policies,” the lawmakers wrote. 

The president of the Texas International Produce Association has also come out against terminating the agreement, suggesting earlier this month that ending the TSA would jeopardize nearly 300,000 U.S. jobs. 

Arizona, whose tomato trade economy is valued at $3.4 billion and sustains about 22,000 jobs, would face the biggest economic loss after Texas from reduced imports, according to studies from Arizona State University’s school of agribusiness.

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) argued in a letter to Lutnick in April that the TSA had set a “fair price” for Mexican tomatoes and given U.S. consumers access to “fresh tomatoes at a low, stable price all year-round.” His office revived calls to save the trade deal on Wednesday in a statement to the Washington Examiner.

“For years, Senator Gallego has warned that ending the Tomato Suspension Agreement will not only raise grocery costs across the country but will put tens of thousands of jobs at risk. The Senator knows that Americans can’t afford Trump’s tomato tax and has repeatedly called on the administration to stop this terrible policy,” spokeswoman Jane Garza said.

Skip Hulett, chief legal officer for Texas-based tomato producer NatureSweet, argued much the same in comments to the Arizona Republic. 

“All of our supply chains are tied around this 30-year way of doing business,” he said. “And now we are faced with that all being turned upside down. It doesn’t make sense from a policy standpoint.”

Critics, however, have been adamant that the framework of the existing TSA deal, even with Trump’s tweaks in 2019, has failed to “close the loopholes that have always been a problem.” 

“It’s become clear that these agreements are simply not enforceable, at least when it comes to the tomato trade with Mexico,” Michael Schadler, then-executive vice president of the Florida Tomato Exchange, told the Florida Phoenix in 2023. “For highly perishable items like fresh tomatoes, there is just too much incentive to evade the reference prices when markets are oversupplied.”

WHY THE GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN COULD DERAIL TRUMP’S MOVE TO ONSHORE THE AUTO SECTOR

While tomatoes are currently selling between $3 and $4 per box, U.S. farmers need to sell a box of tomatoes for closer to $11 to break even, according to Tony DiMare, president of DiMare Homestead, which owns over 4,000 acres of tomato farms in Florida and California. U.S. farmers haven’t been able to outcompete cheaper Mexican tomatoes flooding the market, DiMare told WVSN in May. 

“It’s only good for us,” Arizona tomato grower Casey Houweling said of the agreement termination.