Republican wins in deep blue states like California and New York are often credited with giving the party its slim House majority. But a string of 2022 victories in smaller population states were just as important, exemplified by Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR).
Now the freshman congresswoman's first 10 months in office offer a playbook for how swing district Republicans can position themselves to win reelection in 2024. Chavez-DeRemer has a hyperlocal focus representing the southern Portland suburbs and central Oregon 5th Congressional District.
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It's a political necessity of sorts in the type of House seat Chavez-DeRemer holds. It's one of 18 districts where in 2020, President Joe Biden would have beaten former President Donald Trump, compared to just five House seats held by Democrats where Trump would have prevailed.
The 18 districts sit squarely in House Democrats' political crosshairs, key to their efforts to overturn the Republican majority. The GOP edge will be 222-213 after a pair of November special elections in a deep blue Rhode Island seat and a solidly Republican one in Utah.
That's where the focus on local issues by Chavez-DeRemer comes in, particularly as attention on Capitol Hill often goes to House Republican infighting, which led to the removal of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as House speaker after just nine months in the role.
“I think that’s exactly what got me elected: being focused on the issues that matter most to everyday Oregonians,” Chavez-DeRemer told the Washington Examiner. “They are truly concerned with what was happening in America under the Biden administration, and they felt like they were being squeezed at all costs.”
Chavez-DeRemer said the biggest concern her voters have is the fentanyl crisis racking her district that has been exacerbated by a porous U.S.-Mexico border, along with Measure 110, a local initiative in Oregon that decriminalized minor possession of hard drugs.
“This is something I think for most Oregonians, that measure is always going to stick in their minds, is what it has done to their community,” she said. “The community and the state of Oregon were sold a bill of goods that this was going to be a fix or helpful to the community.”
Regarding a statewide measure, there’s little space for a representative in Washington to operate. The problem is a local one, not something that can be addressed by Congress. But Chavez-DeRemer, mayor of Happy Valley (a Portland suburb of about 24,000 people) from 2011 to 2019, sees herself as a conduit between her voters far from the marbled halls of Congress in Washington. And she said she's using her federal position to get the attention of leaders in the state.
Right now, getting leaders’ attention amounts to writing letters telling them to reassess everything from lax drug laws to lenient pardon and parole policies that release dangerous criminals back onto city streets.
“People in the state expect me to be an extension of their fight for what they believe is not going well,” Chavez-DeRemer, 55, said. “I have constituents calling me saying, 'Hey, we need your help.'”
Quintessential Swing Seat
Democrats aren't buying the notion of Chavez-DeRemer as a political bridge builder.
“While Lori Chavez-DeRemer masquerades as a moderate at home, she’s built a track record of enabling the worst fringes of her far-right party in the halls of Congress, breaking her promises by voting to restrict women’s access to reproductive care and jeopardizing the resources Oregonians rely on by feeding into her party’s chaos and dysfunctions,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Dan Gottlieb told the Washington Examiner. “In 2024, Chavez-DeRemer will have a hard time convincing voters she’s been anything more than another self-serving Republican enabler in Washington, D.C.”
Both parties have legitimate reasons for optimism — and concern — heading into the congresswoman's first reelection bid. Chavez-DeRemer proved her campaign mettle in 2022 by winning in a newly drawn district. (Oregon's House delegation grew from five to six seats due to population growth.) She prevailed over Democratic rival and perennial candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner 50.91% to 48.83%. That was after McLeod-Skinner beat a centrist Democratic incumbent in the primary from the left. And in 2024, Chavez-DeRemer will be running for reelection as an incumbent, which brings a slew of advantages.
Yet the 5th District race will overlap with the 2024 presidential contest, a likely rematch between Biden and Trump. Oregon is a reliably Democratic state in presidential politics, and the level of voter participation is likely to rise in a national election.
The race may hinge on who Democrats nominate to challenge Chavez-DeRemer. The district, which once spread from the Pacific Coast into the Portland metro area, was chopped in half. The liberal suburbs are still intact, but the new map also includes the more conservative bastions of Linn and Jefferson counties. In 2020, Biden would have defeated Trump in the 5th District 53.2% to 44.4%.
McLeod-Skinner would be a tough sell in this quintessential swing district. Last time, Chavez-DeRemer savaged McLeod-Skinner over her liberal record, and it worked.
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But the incumbent could face a tougher opponent in Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum, who is 2-0 in head-to-head competitions between them for the state legislature. Bynum first beat Chavez-DeRemer in 2016 with 51% of the vote and 53% in 2018. Bynum is a small business owner — she owns a McDonald’s franchise and operates four restaurants in Chavez-DeRemer's hometown of Happy Valley.
This means voters in the 5th District next year could have a couple of political repeats in front of them: Biden and Trump in the presidential race and Chavez-DeRemer and Bynum in the congressional contest.