There is no debate that China represents an unprecedented threat to the United States. Beijing possesses greater economic and military might than previous U.S. foes such as the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany, and Imperial Japan. China also has greater leverage over U.S. allies and partners than our 20th-century enemies ever had. Accordingly, the Trump administration must harness all elements of national power to counter China’s threat.
China wants to supplant the U.S. as the world’s sole superpower. Beijing is engaged in the largest military buildup in modern history, representing what the Defense Department has acknowledged as the sole “pacing challenge.” And its aim is clear. China seeks to dominate the Indo-Pacific, a part of the world that will soon account for the majority of the world’s GDP. By achieving mastery of the Pacific, China will be able to project power far from its shores and extract political obedience from Pacific nations. China’s naval buildup and military base acquisition underline its intentions.
Why should this matter to Americans?
For a start, Beijing has shown a willingness to throw its weight around, leveling punitive economic measures against countries that have the temerity to criticize the heavy hand of the Chinese Communist Party. In recent years, China has even threatened U.S. companies such as the National Basketball Association and tiny faraway nations like Lithuania. A world in which China is the unquestioned superpower is not one in which American ideals and free thought can thrive.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted the stakes in his recent confirmation hearing. “If we don’t change course, we are going to live in a world where much of what matters to us on a daily basis, from our security to our health, will be dependent on whether the Chinese allow us to have it or not,” Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Rubio is right. For the first time in modern history, the U.S. is reliant on our foremost geopolitical foe. This is supremely dangerous. Economic power is often, but not always, determinative in global contests for power. History is clear: Industrial might is essential to victory. But Washington seems to have forgotten the lesson.
The U.S.’s supply chains depend on China, providing Beijing with tremendous leverage it isn’t afraid to use. This dependence includes everything from rare-earth minerals to pharmaceuticals and beyond. For example, a 2019 study by the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission found that American consumers are “increasingly reliant” on drugs sourced by a country that “presents economic and national security risks” to the U.S.
During the last Trump administration, Chinese officials suggested that “Beijing curb its exports of raw materials for vitamins and antibiotics as a countermeasure in the trade war with the United States.” A senior adviser at the Hastings Center, Rosemary Gibson, has pointed out that America “can’t even make penicillin anymore.” The U.S. is almost entirely dependent on Beijing to manufacture penicillin and other antibiotics to combat superbugs. If China were to “shut the door on exports, within months, hospitals would cease to function,” Gibson noted. It isn’t hard to imagine the civil unrest that would ensue, to say nothing of the negative impact on our military’s combat readiness.
Just as China uses what political scientists call “all elements of national power” to secure its objectives, the U.S. must respond in kind. This will require both redefining and rethinking national security. Fortunately, there are signs that the Trump administration is on the case.
The White House recently expanded the National Security Council to include the interior secretary. The decision is an important one.
While some occupants of the Oval Office, such as Dwight Eisenhower, had a more expansive view of what constituted the national defense, formulating and implementing security policy has often been the province of agencies such as the State and Defense departments. In recent decades, particularly since the Global War on Terrorism, the departments of the Treasury, Justice, and Homeland Security have also played starring roles. However, the nature of the China threat requires a more encompassing approach. The Interior Department offers a good example. While many people might associate it with our natural parks, its purview extends beyond that.
Natural resources are key to global competition. China’s dominance in rare earths provides Beijing with the materials that it needs to project power and prepare for war. Among other things, this runs the gamut from lithium for essential batteries to the multitude of key raw materials needed for semiconductor production. Protecting and shoring up these assets are fundamental to a country’s security. China has recognized as much, and the U.S. should too.
Other agencies not commonly associated with national security concerns could also be important stakeholders in the policymaking process. For example, many people are rightly concerned about China purchasing farmland and land near military bases. According to the Agriculture Department, Chinese investors’ holdings of U.S. agricultural land surged from 13,720 acres in 2010 to 352,140 acres in 2020. This is one example of how seemingly unlikely agencies such as the USDA also have important roles to play in protecting and advancing the national interest.
The U.S. must adopt a whole-of-government approach to countering China. On some level, this will require broadening both policymaking and thinking — and not only in the halls of power. During the Cold War, society recognized the threat posed by communism. We need to repeat this feat, and it is incumbent upon our leaders to educate and inform the public.
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A more expansive approach to combating the China threat is not without its own pitfalls. Bureaucracies have their own cultures and approaches, and turf wars in policymaking are not uncommon. The Commerce Department, for example, will have different prerogatives than the Defense Department. A broader approach could lead to inefficiency, further slowing down our already anemic response to China.
The CCP is harnessing all of its power to supplant the U.S. If Americans want their freedom and quality of life to continue well into this century, the status quo will not suffice. China has been gaining ground, and too often, it’s been theirs for the taking.
The writer is a Washington, D.C.-based foreign affairs analyst. His views are his own.