In the spirit of the season, the Washington Examiner has identified 12 issues we believe will shape and influence 2025 — and beyond. The incoming Trump administration has made the fight against illegal immigration and the use of tariffs its flagship policy items. The U.S. will also possibly undergo a health revolution, while very real questions need to be answered on everything from Social Security reform to the military to the changing landscape of the energy sector. Part 11 will deal with the changing landscape of the energy sector.
Leading off promises to “Drill, baby, Drill,” a new Trump administration is ushering in a wave of policies within the domestic energy industry, breaking away from the current focus on renewables.
As the United States looks to lead in the races for artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and critical minerals, it faces a clear issue of harnessing enough energy to remain on top. Politicians, tech giants, local governments, and more across the aisle are in agreement that the U.S. needs more power on the grid as demand continues to soar.
For many within the industry, this immediate need for power to support technological advancements, national security, and everyday life will result in pulling energy from all sorts of sources.
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‘All of the above’
The idea of an “all of the above” strategy has been around for decades, with some tracing its connection to energy back to a 2000 House floor speech from then-Republican New York Rep. Benjamin Gilman.
“We need to be exploring alternative energy sources, the use of coal, the use of hydroelectric power, of biomass, geothermal, photovoltaic, solar thermal and wind, utilizing ethanol, creating a system of electric reliability, increasing the exploration and supply of natural gas, and retrofitting or building cost-efficient oil refineries,” Gilman said at the time.
More than 24 years later, this concept has primarily remained unchanged, with both Republicans and Democrats embracing the phrase to push further acceptance of renewables or fossil fuels, depending on their agenda.
Many Republicans have recently touted the “all of the above” strategy as the primary way to deliver on the president-elect’s objectives of establishing energy security and dominance in the U.S.
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However, those closer to the Trump camp have indicated the incoming administration will be less focused on embracing all sources and more on historically reliable energy sources such as oil and natural gas.
“The MAGA agenda has moved past ‘all of the above.’ We know what works is fossil fuels,” Steve Milloy, a senior legal fellow with the Energy and Environment Legal Institute and former Trump EPA transition team member, told the Washington Examiner.
Milloy noted that while there may be some “room” for nuclear within the president-elect’s agenda, he has long detested renewables such as wind.
“I think ‘all of the above’ is gone. At least in the administration, ‘all of the above’ is not going to be the policy,” he added. “The policy will be energy dominance, and energy dominance will be achieved by exploiting our fossil fuels to the utmost.”
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What this means for renewables
Throughout his campaign, Donald Trump vowed to roll back federal support for offshore wind. It remains unclear what this looks like in action, though some have theorized that the president-elect will issue an executive order pausing federal funding or permits for projects still seeking critical approvals.
Developments for solar power are also at risk in the next administration as Trump has vowed to end clean energy tax credits supplied through President Joe Biden’s climate-focused Inflation Reduction Act.
While many of these credits have been found to lead to increased job creation and rural development in both Democratic and Republican districts, critics have accused them of unfairly prioritizing clean projects.
Given the economic support seen across political regions, a full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act is not anticipated in the next Congress. Top Republicans have also emphasized the party would instead take a “scalpel” to the package. This is expected to include ending subsidies for electric vehicles and charging stations — something Trump has repeatedly rallied against.
No matter what is walked back, some experts are confident many green subsidies will reappear under new framing during the next administration — likely in relation to energy dominance.
“What I really believe is that there’s going to be a lot of repeal, change, direction, noise, and maybe action, and then it may reappear with a different name or different packaging,” Hogan Lovells global regulatory senior counsel Mary Anne Sullivan said following the November election. “Make a package differently, but in the long run, I think the basic needs are going to drive — no administration benefits from an unstable electric grid. That is a disaster for anybody.”
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Fossil fuels sticking around
With less of an emphasis on renewable energy projects, something has to fill the gap that soaring demand has created.
As a result, many are turning their attention to fossil fuels once again, sparking questions about the impact on planned retirements of decades-old coal plants. Not only has Trump vowed to “Drill, baby, Drill,” but the president-elect is also expected to walk back sweeping power plant standards set by the Environmental Protection Agency seeking to reduce methane emissions and toxic air pollutants.
“The coal industry will benefit, but more importantly, American consumers will benefit,” James Taylor, president of the Heartland Institute, said of the impact of the incoming administration’s energy policies.
“I suspect that instead of a full court press to shut down coal power at federal and state levels, we’re going to see more of an understanding that energy affordability should take priority,” he told the Washington Examiner. “And left to compete in a free and open market, coal, natural gas are going to win out.”
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When it comes to oil and natural gas, some in the industry have expressed concerns regarding the impact increased drilling in the U.S. may have on the global market. With international crude prices averaging in the low $70s, analysts have warned prices could average $60 a barrel with Trump in office. While these lower prices would continue to offer relief for consumers at the pump, they can be a cause of concern for international investors.
It remains to be seen if fossil fuels will come roaring back under the new administration, but it is already evident their phase-out, particularly for coal, is slowing down.
In November, a new analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data found that domestic utilities were on track to retire only 3 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity in 2024 — the lowest since 2015. Plus, since the election, some energy companies have opted to keep their coal plants open for longer. In December, Vistra Corp. announced it would be operating its Baldwin power plant in Illinois through 2027. The plant had been scheduled to close next year.
Other alternatives
It’s important to recognize that fossil fuels, wind energy, and solar power are not the only sources of energy at play.
Companies pushing developments for alternative energy sources, such as geothermal and hydrogen, are looking to make their voice heard ahead of any Inflation Reduction Act cuts. Some startups are even pointing to existing infrastructure for oil and natural gas, saying it can be leveraged for cleaner energy.
For example, decarbonization company ETCH has developed a technology that allows it to eliminate carbon dioxide from natural gas, generate clean hydrogen, and produce usable solid carbon through existing pipelines.
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“Everywhere we’re currently using natural gas, you can put our system in place and pull the carbon out from that stream of natural gas,” founder Dr. Jonah Erlebacher told the Washington Examiner, adding that the hydrogen produced can then be used in place of the natural gas for electricity.
Similarly, there has been increased support for using traditional oil and gas drilling technologies such as fracking for cleaner energy sources such as geothermal.
“It leverages the existing oil and gas infrastructure because we need to drill wells,” Cindy Taff, the CEO of Texas-based Sage Geosystems, told the Washington Examiner, adding, “Once that energy is harnessed, then we’re going to have to scale very similar to the unconventional shale revolution that happened 15 years ago.”
Though further developments for these alternatives may likely depend on what Inflation Reduction Act subsidies are left untouched.
“The Inflation Reduction Act is a fantastic tax incentive for companies, especially startups that, you know, need to get over that kind of investment hurdle,” Taff said.
Waiting on nuclear
At the same time, many are expecting the revival of nuclear energy to continue into the next decade. From growing public support to increased private investments, 2024 saw a renewed interest in nuclear power.
Major tech companies Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft all announced plans to support new nuclear power generation through small modular reactors and the reopening of decommissioned plants, helping support their AI advancements and climate goals.
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Nuclear energy has long been criticized for its high costs, environmental impacts, and the extensive time it takes to build new infrastructure. However, if any “overly burdensome regulation” is removed, Taylor insisted it can be economically competitive with coal and natural gas, thereby providing another pathway to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
“If we take the politics out of the equation, if we take fearmongering out of the equation, nuclear power will do quite well, especially with advanced technologies that have been developed in recent decades,” Taylor said. “So in such a political environment, that I anticipate will be the case, I think we will see somewhat of a nuclear renaissance.”
Some experts have also suggested utilizing existing coal industry infrastructure for nuclear power generation, which helps reduce emissions while still supporting communities relying on retiring plants.
“America’s coal power plants are scheduled to retire over the coming decade, and we are developing new nuclear technologies that are more of a drop in solution than they’ve ever been before,” John Jacobs, a senior policy analyst with the Bipartisan Policy Center, explained to the Washington Examiner. “So we are looking at, can you use these advanced nuclear technologies to repower some of these sites that already have an energy workforce.”
Jacobs explained that he and his colleagues found that around 70% of the existing coal power plant workforce can easily be retrained to work at an advanced nuclear facility, thanks to similar infrastructure. Not only would this help secure additional energy for the local grid, Jacobs noted it would alleviate the “cycle of economic devastation” coal communities face when these power plants retire.
The advanced reactor industry is in a good position with soaring energy demand pushing the commercialization of the technology, Jacobs said. But, there is still work that needs to be done for any licensing and regulatory requirements to transform a retired coal power plant into a nuclear facility.
While there is no current pathway to utilize coal plants for nuclear in this way, Jacobs indicated the support is there through financial incentives and tools such as the Department of Energy’s Loans Program Office’s 1706 program that looks to support projects reutilizing existing energy infrastructure.
“I’m just very optimistic about the state of that industry and where we are going to end up, regardless of which administration — if anything, I think the Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration really shows a convergence between the parties supporting nuclear energy,” Jacobs said.
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As investments in nuclear energy continue, it is important to note that many of the returns, such as newly constructed reactors, won’t be expected until the end of the decade.
However, the industry won’t have to wait long to see progress. The Palisades Nuclear Plant in Michigan is poised to receive approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to go back online in 2025. If approved, the plant would be the first decommissioned nuclear facility to reopen in the U.S. And given the progress within the sector, it likely won’t be the last.