A STRIKING CONTRAST ON TRUMP TRIAL DAY. Monday has been Trump Trial Day in the media, especially for those outlets openly cheering the prosecution of former President Donald Trump on felony charges relating to recordkeeping for a nondisclosure agreement he made with a former porn star. The excitement on some networks is palpable.
The scenario of a Democratic district attorney, Manhattan’s Alvin Bragg, putting Trump on trial amid a presidential campaign is striking in part because of a new survey showing a plurality of the public believing the Trump presidency was better for America than the presidency of Trump’s opponent, the sitting President Joe Biden.
The news is deep inside a New York Times-Siena poll that found the Biden-Trump race overall almost exactly tied, with Trump leading Biden by a single percentage point, 46% to 45%. Later in the poll, the pollsters asked these two questions: “Do you generally remember the years that Donald Trump was president as mostly good years for America, mostly bad years for America, or not really good or bad?” and “Do you think the years that Joe Biden has been president have been mostly good years for America, mostly bad years for America, or not really good or bad?”
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Trump had a solid advantage in voters’ recollections, with 42% saying his presidential years were mostly good years for America, while just 25% said Biden’s presidential years have been mostly good for America. Trump also had a solid advantage on the other side of the answer, with 33% saying his presidential years were mostly bad for America, while a much larger 46% said Biden’s presidential years have been mostly bad for America.
Trump’s advantage in voters’ memories is nearly across the board. Among men, 53% said the Trump years were mostly good for America, compared to 24% who said the Biden years have been mostly good for America. Among women, the margin was closer, but Trump still led 33% to 27%.
Trump’s lead extended to all age groups. In one notable example, 33% of voters 18 to 29 said the Trump years were mostly good for America, while just 8% said the same of Biden. Among voters 30 to 44, the Trump lead was 39% to 20%. Among voters 45-64, the Trump lead was 48% to 28%. Only among those 65 and older was it even close, and Trump still led 44% to 39%.
To give you an idea about the relative size of each group, the poll said voters 18-29 make up 16% of the electorate, while voters 30-44 make up 23% of the electorate, voters 45-64 make up 31% of the electorate, and voters 65 and older make up 25% of the electorate.
Trump’s much-discussed lead among voters without a college degree came through in the poll, but even among voters with a four-year degree, slightly more said Trump’s years were good for the country. Among those without a degree, 48% said the Trump years were mostly good for America, while just 20% said that about Biden. Among those with a bachelor’s degree, 34% said the Trump years were good, versus 33% who said that of Biden.
Again, to give you an idea about the relative size of each group, the pollsters say voters with a B.A. degree make up 37% of the electorate, while those without a B.A. make up 61% of the electorate.
There has been a lot of discussion about Trump appealing to more black voters than Republicans in the past. There’s some evidence of that here, but it is among black voters that Biden has his one big advantage in the good-for-America question. Just 10% of black voters said the Trump years were mostly good for America, while 37% said the Biden years have been mostly good. Among Hispanic voters, the story is different. A solid 41% said the Trump years were mostly good for America, while just 19% said the same of Biden. Among white voters, 50% said the Trump years were mostly good, while just 24% said that of Biden.
To see the relative size of each group, the pollsters say white voters make up 65% of the electorate, while black voters make up 11% and Hispanic voters make up 12%.
Finally, more voters in cities, suburbs, and small towns and rural areas all thought the Trump years were good for America than said the same about Biden. In cities, 33% said the Trump years were good, versus 30% who said that about Biden. In suburbs, 38% said the Trump years were good, versus 28% who said that about Biden. And in rural areas and small towns, 55% said the Trump years were good, versus just 17% who said that about Biden.
Again, to give you an idea of the relative size of each group, according to the pollsters, city residents make up 23% of the total electorate, with 42% in suburbs and 34% in rural areas and small towns.
A few days ago, this newsletter discussed another poll that asked today’s voters whether they approved of the job Trump did as president and whether they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Again, Trump came out ahead. “The results are ominous for the current president,” the newsletter said. “First, they might show that voters simply think Trump did a better job than Biden, and most voters would of course choose the man who did the better job. Second, they might show that Trump voters are experiencing what is sometimes called the ‘rosy retrospection’ effect; that is, they think everything was better in the past. Or third, perhaps on some key issues — the economy, immigration, international affairs — things really were better when Trump was president, and a vote for Trump over Biden would be a fact-based decision.”
Now, with the new New York Times-Siena poll, we have more head-to-head voter judgments, this time on the most fundamental question of all: Were the Trump years mostly good for America, and are the Biden years mostly good for America? Again, voters give Trump the edge.
And the new numbers are out just in time for Trump’s trial day. A Democratic prosecutor in New York is putting on trial the Republican former president who more voters think did a better job than the Democrat he is running to unseat. The same is true in Georgia, where another Democratic prosecutor is trying to do the same thing, and in Washington, D.C., and Florida, where the Biden Justice Department’s special prosecutor is seeking to try Trump in two separate trials. Although some of the cases have bogged down with substantive and procedural problems, the goal of all these prosecutions is to convict and actually jail Trump before Election Day. The juxtaposition of the voters’ views with the prosecutors’ actions could not be more striking.