The United States, President Franklin D. Roosevelt said during World War II, must become the "arsenal of democracy."

Eight decades later, America’s arsenal is running dangerously low. Fortunately, the nominee for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has suggested a crucial first step to solving the country’s munitions shortage. Industrial power is key to winning wars. Yet, America’s defense industrial base is in a precarious state, raising questions about whether the U.S. would have the materials necessary to fight and win a war — or, preferably, to deter one.

Numerous war games have shown that the U.S. would likely run out of key munitions a mere week into a conflict with China over Taiwan. For example, a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that "in the event of a major regional conflict — such as war with China in the Taiwan Strait— the U.S. use of munitions would likely exceed the current stockpiles of the U.S. Department of Defense."

And potentially failing to field armaments has a global effect on U.S. national security, undercutting existing policy. "Stockpiles in the United States," the CSIS study observed, "have become strained and American arms makers have not been able to keep up with the pace of Ukraine’s battlefield operations."

Top Pentagon officials have also expressed their concern. On July 12, 2023, the commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe, Gen. James Hecker, warned that the stockpile of weapons of the U.S. and its allies is "dangerously low.” Further belying these concerns, the U.S. has dipped into existing stockpiles in South Korea, Israel, and elsewhere. "We need to get industry on board," Gen. Hecker warned.

Fortunately, the Biden administration’s nominee for chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. C.Q. Brown, has expressed his support for the multiyear purchasing of munitions. This is no small thing.

By their very nature, limited contracts remove an incentive for defense companies to produce armaments beyond the year stipulated. Multiyear contracts, however, will better ensure that munitions are more readily available and will help replenish diminishing stockpiles. Indeed, several analysts have recommended the adoption of multiyear contracts for procuring munitions. But more work remains.

The U.S. should expand its definition of the defense industrial base to include rare earth metals and basic drugs such as penicillin. At present, China dominates these sectors. The U.S. should also encourage competition. In the 1990s, the defense sector consolidated substantially, moving from 51 to 5 aerospace and defense contractors. At present, 90% of missiles come from a mere three sources, according to a 2022 Pentagon study .

During World War II, Winston Churchill famously told the U.S. to "give us the tools, and we will finish the job." The present job — maintaining the U.S.-led liberal order — is obvious, if daunting. But whether the U.S. will have the tools to carry it out is at question.

The writer is a Washington D.C.-based foreign affairs analyst.