The 2024 House map is beginning to take shape as some lawmakers consider a Senate bid rather than running for reelection, setting the stage for a contentious election cycle as Republicans and Democrats battle for control of the lower chamber.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) announced her plans on Monday to run to replace the retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) in lieu of running to defend her competitive House seat. Slotkin’s absence in the race prompted election forecasters to rate her seat as a toss-up in the 2024 cycle, giving Republicans a chance to flip the district as they seek to maintain control of the House.
REPUBLICANS HOLD SLIGHT ADVANTAGE IN RACE FOR HOUSE CONTROL IN FIRST RATINGS FOR 2024 CYCLE
With Slotkin’s seat being deemed vulnerable, that brings the total number of toss-up seats to 21, according to the most recent forecast by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024, with 42 of those considered to be somewhat competitive.
In total, 21 seats are rated as toss-ups, with a majority of those being held by Democrats, according to the forecast. Twelve House Democrats are considered vulnerable in the 2024 cycle compared to just nine for Republicans.
Here’s a breakdown of which seats are considered to be most at risk heading into the next election cycle.
Democrats brace for possible map changes as redistricting battles continue
Making things more difficult for the Democrats is the redistricting of North Carolina and Ohio, which could push political boundaries in the two battleground states in the Republicans' favor.
Approximately 46 lawsuits were filed in 22 states seeking to overturn newly redrawn congressional maps that were implemented ahead of the midterm elections, according to the Democracy Docket, a liberal voting rights organization. Roughly 32% of those lawsuits challenged the maps for alleged partisan bias, with the majority of those being filed in Ohio and North Carolina.
That puts at least six Democratic incumbents in toss-up races, including Reps. Don Davis (D-NC), Kathy Manning (D-NC), Wiley Nickel (D-NC), Jeff Jackson (D-NC), Greg Landsman (D-OH), and Emilia Sykes (D-OH). All but Manning were elected during the midterm elections using temporary maps, meaning they are likely to face reelection in a district that is different from the one they won in 2022.
Republicans in Biden districts open opportunities for Democrats to flip
Although Republicans hold a slight advantage over the Democrats by entering the 2024 playing field with the House majority, there are several GOP incumbents who are considered to be somewhat vulnerable as they seek reelection in districts Biden won in 2020.
At least 18 Republicans are running in districts that Biden carried in 2020. Of those, five are seeking reelection for seats they won by less than 3 percentage points in the midterm elections, including Reps. David Schweikert (R-AZ), Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), John Duarte (R-CA), Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ), and Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR).
The large number of vulnerable seats could give the Democrats a chance to flip some districts as they vie to regain the House majority.
New York Republicans face tough challenge to defend seats
A handful of Republican freshmen lawmakers from New York are considered to be the biggest cluster of vulnerable candidates in 2024, according to the Cook Political Report. That list includes Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, and Brandon Williams, who all won their races by less than 4 percentage points.
The group also benefited in their midterm races from the lackluster popularity of Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY), who failed to garner much Democratic turnout in the Empire State. This time, the four freshmen can expect higher voter turnout as voters head to the polls to weigh in on the presidential election.
Rep. George Santos (R-NY) is also considered to be incredibly vulnerable in the cycle, with the Cook Political Report deeming him the “single most doomed incumbent in the House.” As a result, the freshman lawmaker has been placed in the “lean Democratic” category.
Other races to keep an eye on
A handful of other Democrats in reliably blue states are also considered vulnerable heading into the 2024 cycle, including Reps. Susan Wild (D-PA) and Matt Cartwright (D-PA). Both Democrats were able to eke out victories in their respective districts in November, narrowly defeating their Republican challengers.
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However, Wild could face a tough reelection battle in 2024 thanks to newly redrawn congressional boundaries that added GOP-leaning Carbon County to her list of constituents.
Elsewhere, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) also faces a tough reelection challenge as she must defend the seat she flipped in 2022 in a district that has long been considered a Republican stronghold. The Cook Political Report also listed Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO) as vulnerable as the first-term incumbent seeks to defend her seat in the newly created Colorado district that emerged as one of the most competitive midterm races in 2022.