As 2024 comes to a close, it is all but certain to be the hottest year on record.
The global average temperature could breach a major threshold, reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius, roughly 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above the preindustrial average of temperatures. This is due to several factors that occurred this year, mainly the continued burning of fossil fuels and the natural El Nino climate pattern, which raised temperatures globally.
Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, which trap heat in the atmosphere, reached record levels in 2024.
The year also began with a strong El Nino event, a naturally occurring weather pattern that happens when the Pacific Ocean releases large amounts of heat into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures. Halfway through the year, the El Nino pattern faded and began slowly shifting toward La Nina conditions, which are expected to continue into the new year.
If annual average temperatures do reach 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times by the year’s end, it would be the first year that the benchmark from the 2015 Paris climate agreement is breached. Nearly a decade ago, countries agreed to try to limit the warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid more powerful storms and heat waves.
If that mark is hit, it does not necessarily mean that countries in the agreement have failed. Instead, temperatures would need to consistently breach 1.5 degrees Celsius over a 20-year average.
This autumn was the hottest on record in the United States. Phoenix, Arizona, is no stranger to hot temperatures, and it saw more than 100 days of temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit across the summer and well into the fall.
A number of life-threatening disasters also hit the world this year. Hurricane Helene devastated parts of inland North Carolina. In June, 1,300 people died in Saudi Arabia when a heat wave hit during the Hajj religious pilgrimage.
Previously, 2023 was the hottest year ever since record-keeping began in the mid-1800s.
A new report from World Weather Attribution and Climate Central warned that every country needs to prepare for rising climate risks to minimize deaths and damages in 2025 and beyond. The report found that a much faster transition away from fossil fuels is needed to “avoid a future of relentless heat waves, drought, wildfires, storms, and floods.”
The report additionally found there were 41 extra days of dangerous heat in 2024 due to human-caused global warming.
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“The impacts of fossil fuel warming have never been clearer or more devastating than in 2024,” said Friederike Otto, WWA lead and senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London.
“We know exactly what we need to do to stop things from getting worse: stop burning fossil fuels,” Otto said. “The top resolution for 2025 must be transitioning away from fossil fuels, which will make the world a safer and more stable place.”