The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a major viability test for the intellectual and political movement called the “New Right.”
To be clear, this is not the New Right of the 20th century that included voices such as writer William F. Buckley Jr. and culminated in the election of former President Ronald Reagan in 1980. While that coalition championed free markets, limited government, and relatively hawkish foreign policy, the modern New Right is skeptical of capitalism, more willing to use the power of the state, and relatively dovish.
While former President Donald Trump was willing to buck the original New Right consensus on protectionism, for example, his approach was more pragmatic than driven by a clear set of principles during his first term. However, organizations such as American Moment, American Compass, and the Claremont Institute have created a clear foundation for a second term rooted in “national conservatism.”
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) has been seen as the champion of national conservatism for several years, and his selection as Trump’s running mate this year was at least partially due to lobbying from New Right voices. Vance had been a founding member of the advisory board for American Moment and even spoke at the first National Conservatism conference in 2019. Writer Josh Hammer recently called Vance “the chosen one” and said he is “uniquely capable of giving voice to an entire disaffected generation or two and permanently transforming America’s cultural and political landscape.”
While the Trump-Vance ticket is the dream team for the New Right and its first true national test, several previous trials for the coalition have had mixed results. Vance underperformed in his 2022 Senate race, and fellow New Right member Blake Masters lost in Arizona. Moreover, recent polls show Vance is the most unpopular running mate selection since 1980. Since 2000, vice presidential nominees have had an average net positive rating of plus 19 points immediately after party conventions, but Vance is now at minus six. Additionally, the pet project of the movement, Project 2025, has been disavowed by Trump.
Furthermore, conflict within the New Right is revealing some deep ideological fractures. At this year’s National Conservatism Conference, former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy criticized Vance for praising left-wing Federal Trade Commission Chairwoman Lina Khan and said the economic approach taken by national conservatives needs to be more libertarian. Executive Director of American Compass Oren Cass said the Right needs to focus on solving problems instead of “pounding the table for Christian nationalism or a second American revolution,” a thinly veiled criticism of Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts.
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It should be remembered that the original New Right was unsuccessful in its first national endeavor, the 1964 presidential candidacy of former Republican Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater, but pushed forward until it won with Reagan. However, this New Right may more closely follow factions such as the Rockefeller Republicans, who all but died off after numerous losses.
It is simply too early to tell whether the New Right will be successful in reshaping the Republican Party long-term. Perhaps the GOP is not ready to be the home of the New Right, perhaps it never will be, and perhaps it already is.