In about twelve weeks, 2024 Republican hopefuls will have the opportunity to square off in the first party-sanctioned debate of the 2024 cycle.
On Friday, the Republican National Committee rolled out its criteria for qualifying for the verbal bout, prompting some to gear up for the battle and others to scramble for ways to boost their standing so they can make it onto the debate stage.
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To qualify, hopefuls must routinely poll about 1% in either an early state poll and two national polls, or in at least three national polls. They will also be required to accrue donations from a minimum of 40,000 donors. Additionally, contenders must sign a party pledge which includes a commitment to back the eventual nominee.
Notably, eligible polling "must be conducted on or after July 1," and candidates must prove they meet the qualification standards by Aug. 21.
The first debate will be hosted by Fox News on Aug 23., with a potential second debate the following day "should enough candidates qualify to make it necessary."
Given those metrics, here is where the 2024 field appears to stand.
Definitely in
Assuming these contenders are willing to sign the GOP loyalty pledge, they appear to be set to participate in the debate come August.
Donald Trump
As the reigning front-runner, former President Donald Trump has proven to be a fundraising juggernaut and clinched a roughly 30-point lead over his peers in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls.
All that stands in his way is the pledge, which was a major sticking point for him in the 2016 election cycle, and the question of whether debating his rivals is even worth it for the former president.
"When you’re leading by seemingly insurmountable numbers, and you have hostile Networks with angry, TRUMP & MAGA-hating anchors asking the 'questions,' why subject yourself to being libeled and abused?" Trump wrote on Truth Social in April, hinting he may skip the debate.
Ron DeSantis
Consistently polling in second place and similarly hauling in large amounts of cash, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is a shoo-in for the debate as he doesn't appear to have qualms with the loyalty pledge.
Given his status as the second-place contender, the debates could prove critical to him. Either he is going to have to face off with Trump or risk getting dog-piled on by lower-polling candidates eager to make some gains.
Mike Pence
Expected to announce his campaign this week, former Vice President Mike Pence has generally polled in either third or fourth place in the RealClearPolitics aggregate. Given his prominence in the party, Pence will likely garner sufficient donors as well.
Nikki Haley
One of the first major candidates to jump into the 2024 arena other than Trump, former United Nations Ambassador, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has generally clocked in around either third or fourth place. More recently, she's clinched third place in the RealClearPolitics aggregate, and she also has ample fundraising prowess.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is ringing in at 2.6 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate and claims to have already struck the donor threshold.
Tim Scott
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) threw his hat into the ring last month. He has already met the polling metric and appears to have a robust network of donors that he built up during his time in the upper chamber.
Likely in
These contenders appear to be on the verge of clearing the debate hurdles, but aren't necessarily guaranteed to.
Chris Christie
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie nabbed a few 1% standings in several polls already and appears to have a considerable donor base at his disposal given his last run for president in 2016. Still, it's not necessarily a given that he'll make it. He is expected to announce his 2024 campaign on Tuesday.
Larry Elder
Conservative radio host and former California gubernatorial hopeful Larry Elder has clinched 0.5% in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate. But he managed to snag 1% in multiple polls last month. Additionally, his campaign has expressed confidence that he will meet the donor requirements.
Chris Sununu
Not yet in the contest, Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) has displayed an ability to garner over 1% support in polling, but his donor base is a little murkier. He has also been fiercely critical of Trump in public.
Asa Hutchinson
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has been critical of the RNC donor requirements and the pledge. But he has managed to clear the 1% threshold in numerous polls.
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More of a lift
At least half a dozen aspirants who have either declared or are poised to enter the race are likely worried about the criteria if they are keen on getting on the debate stage. This includes Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), businessman and author Perry Johnson, businessman Ryan Binkley, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX), and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez.
In those instances, the aspirant either lacks evidence of being able to meet the 1% polling threshold or the donor requirements.