2024, AN ELECTION ABOUT ELECTIONS. The new poll out from Fox News has a number of intriguing findings. For example, it shows that in a two-way, head-to-head matchup, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 5 points. And in a five-way matchup between Biden, Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein, Trump leads Biden by…5 points. The same margin. Maybe all those third-party candidates won’t have a decisive effect on the basic Biden-Trump dynamic after all.
The poll also found Biden’s job approval bouncing in the range this newsletter discussed yesterday. It is 41% at the moment and has never been higher than 47% or lower than 40% in the Fox News poll since September 2021. Biden’s approval rating for many specific issues, such as immigration and the economy, is of course terrible.
One notable part of the poll concerns what voters think are the most important in the 2024 race. Fox News asked the question this way: “For each of the following issues, please tell me how important it is in deciding your vote for president.” What followed was a list of the issues, recited in random order for each respondent: healthcare, the economy, abortion, climate change, election integrity, immigration, abortion, and foreign policy.
The most important issue, as it usually is, was the economy, which 61% of respondents called “extremely” important. Next came election integrity, called “extremely” important by 53% of respondents. Then immigration, with 48%; healthcare, 46%; abortion, 41%; foreign policy, 38%; and climate change, 30%.
Nearly all of these clearly benefit one candidate or the other. For example, 70% of Republicans said the economy is extremely important, while 50% of Democrats said the same thing. Advantage Republicans. On healthcare, 57% of Democrats said it is extremely important, while 36% of Republicans said the same thing. Advantage Democrats.
The same held true for several other issues. On immigration, 69% of Republicans said it is extremely important, while 29% of Democrats said so. Advantage Republicans. On climate change, 49% of Democrats said it is extremely important, versus 15% of Republicans. Advantage Democrats, although climate change is not something that interests a huge number of voters.
On abortion, 58% of Democrats said it is extremely important, versus 29% of Republicans. Advantage Democrats. And on foreign policy, 44% of Republicans said it is extremely important versus 34% of Democrats. A little advantage for Republicans.
That leaves perhaps the most interesting topic — election integrity. Judging by the number of people who said it is extremely important, it is the second-most urgent issue of the race, according to the Fox News poll. And it is evenly, almost exactly evenly, divided between the parties. Among Democrats, 54% said election integrity is extremely important, while 55% of Republicans said the same thing. Advantage — who?
Other indicators show the even split over election integrity. Among people who called themselves liberals, 54% said it is extremely important. And among people who called themselves conservatives, the same number, 54%, said the same thing.
Which leads to the question: What is election integrity? Is it Democrats worried that Trump and Republicans will cheat? Is it Republicans worried that Biden and Democrats will cheat? It appears to be both, in roughly equal force. Given that, it seems reasonable to expect both Biden and Trump to highlight it in their campaigns. In some ways, 2024 will be an election about elections.
For a deeper dive into many of the topics covered in the Daily Memo, please listen to my podcast, The Byron York Show — available on Radio America and the Ricochet Audio Network and everywhere else podcasts can be found.