South Carolina is shaping up to be an early battleground state for GOP presidential hopefuls in the 2024 election, as Republicans begin campaigning in the state Democrats selected to be first in their primary calendar.
Republicans began circling the area as early as January after former President Donald Trump traveled to Columbia, South Carolina, for an "intimate" event where he presented his South Carolina team. Former Trump U.N. ambassador and former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) is expected to announce her presidential campaign on Feb. 15 in Charleston, South Carolina.
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Other GOP officials who are raising speculation about a White House bid in 2024 have set their eyes on the state, as well. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) is launching his "Faith in America" listening tour out of Charleston in late February to commemorate Black History Month.
Former Vice President Mike Pence initially planned to visit South Carolina for a roundtable with law enforcement in Charleston on Monday and offer a meet-and-greet in Myrtle Beach, but he postponed his trip after his daughter went into labor, per CBS.
Both Scott and Pence have yet to announce that they are running for president, but they have heavily hinted at it over the last several months. Scott said during his reelection victory speech in November that he wished his father was alive to see "perhaps another man of color elected president of the United States." Pence told supporters in mid-November that he was giving the decision "prayerful consideration" and that he thinks America will have "better choices" for president in the future.
South Carolina has a history of choosing the eventual GOP White House nominee, former Haley spokesman Rob Godfrey told the Hill. He is now unaffiliated with a campaign.
"Since the inception of its primary, the winner of the South Carolina contest has gone on to be the Republican nominee for president every time except for once, so it makes sense that we would see candidates … of all backgrounds, candidates with all visions, candidates with White House aspirations, come and make South Carolina like a second home,” Godfrey said.
Trump spokesman Steven Cheung said the former president has led by "wide margins" in national and South Carolina state polls. Trump has campaigned in the state during previous presidential bids and offered endorsements in the state's primaries, weighing in favor of Scott and Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC).
"He made a successful trip to the state and unveiled his leadership team consisting of elected officials and grassroots leaders," Cheung said via the Hill. "President Trump is the only person who can stop Joe Biden’s radical agenda and return America to greatness."
However, Trump's past success does not guarantee that South Carolina will swing in his favor, as voters in the state have historically considered various options.
“I think he does still have a very strong base of support, but South Carolinians have always — this has been true in both Republican and Democratic primaries in the state — they’ve been pretty practical about things, and so they don’t always vote their heart. They sometimes look at the lay of the land and think about the bigger picture of who can actually win the general election," Danielle Vinson, a professor of politics at Furman University, said.
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The Palmetto Family Council told the Hill it will treat this like a "12-month interview process" and will hear from many possible GOP candidates at the Vision '24 National Conservative Forum. Invited guests include Trump, Pence, Scott, Haley, and DeSantis, but their attendance has not been confirmed as of yet.
A January poll from South Carolina Policy Council found that 37% of primary voters would support Trump as the GOP candidate in 2024. However, in a matchup between Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), the former president significantly trailed the governor, 33% to 52%.