Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) has once again declined to commit to running for reelection in 2024, keeping Democrats on edge as the party seeks to defend its slim majority in the upper chamber.
"I’ve got a few things to think about," Tester told NBC News on Wednesday. "We got to make sure that we’ve thought through all the procedures of what’s going to happen over the next eight years. And so, once we get through with that, then we can come down and make a decision.”
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Tester is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents because he would be running in a state that Trump won by 16.4 percentage points in 2020. However, Tester has said he “feels good about his chances” as the Democratic incumbent benefits from a 60% approval rating and has handily been reelected twice since taking office in 2007.
Democrats are in a fragile position heading into 2024 despite managing to outperform expectations during the midterm elections and managing to secure a one-seat majority in the Senate.
There are a total of 33 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Of these, Democrats, or independents who caucus with them, must defend 23, compared to just 10 for Republicans. The circumstances put Republicans in a strong position to flip some crucial seats that could easily shift the current balance of power in the upper chamber.
Montana is expected to be a tight race in 2024, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rating it as “leaning Democrat” but possible to become a “tossup.”
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The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the GOP’s main campaign arm, has already begun targeting Tester ahead of the 2024 cycle, launching a series of attack ads calling on the Montana Democrat to either “retire or get fired.”
Republicans only need to flip one Senate seat to win the majority should they win back the White House in 2024. If they don’t regain the Oval Office, the party needs to secure two extra Senate seats.