Ukraine's defense minister warned that Russia would likely launch a major 500,000-soldier offensive around Feb. 24 — the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion.
Oleksiy Reznikov appeared on the French news channel BFM TV to plead for more weapons for the Ukrainian military. To back up his case, he revealed that Ukrainian intelligence estimated that Russia had gathered roughly 500,000 fresh troops on Ukraine's borders. Reznikov said they were part of preparations for a major new offensive by the end of the month.
“We think that, given that [Russia] lives in symbolism, they will try to try something around February 24," Reznikov said.
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“We do not underestimate our enemy,” he continued. “Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments, it is much more.” Reznikov estimated the true number to be around "500,000 Russian soldiers."
Reznikov predicted that the Russian military would attack in the east and south.
Russia "can attempt a two-axis offensive: It can be in Donbas and it can be the south," he added.
Reznikov's statements are in line with predictions from Western intelligence and public predictions from other Ukrainian officials.
Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, also recently predicted a large-scale Russian offensive to commemorate the first anniversary of the invasion, the Guardian reported.
Exiled Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Haidai also predicted a Russian offensive sometime in February.
“There is an active transfer of [Russian troops] to the region, and they are definitely preparing for something on the eastern front in February,” he said.
He added that Russia has been expelling local residents to hide the buildup.
The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank, noted last month that Russia is "taking steps to conduct the 'special military operation' as a major conventional war." The ISW said Russia is undergoing major industrial and infrastructural reorganization.
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The ISW predicted that the new offensive would be directed around the Luhansk region, with intentions of taking the Donbas region. Reznikov's estimate was in line with this prediction, though he added a likely push from the south, which the organization viewed as unlikely.
The defense minister added that new weapon deliveries would allow Ukraine to properly counter the offensive, but experts and Western officials note that training Ukrainian forces on the new systems will take months.