Democrats are in a fragile position heading into 2024 despite managing to outperform expectations during the 2022 midterm elections and secure a one-seat majority in the Senate.
There are a total of 34 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Of these, Democrats must defend 23, compared to just 11 for Republicans. The circumstances put Republicans in a strong position to flip some crucial seats that could easily shift the current balance of power in the upper chamber.
DEMOCRATS ON DEFENSE AS 2024 SENATE MAP BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
Here’s a breakdown of the 2024 Senate battlefield and what Democrats must face as they seek to defend their slim majority.
The math
Because senators are elected to six-year terms, the Senate is divided into three classes of 33 or 34 lawmakers that are up for reelection every two years. The 2024 cycle also coincides with the presidential election, putting Democrats in a more difficult position as President Joe Biden’s approval ratings could affect which party voters want to back.
Republicans only need to flip one Senate seat to win the majority should they win back the White House in 2024. If they don’t regain the Oval Office, the party only needs to secure two extra Senate seats.
Democrats defend seats in Trump territory
Making things more difficult, Democrats will need to defend a number of seats located in reliably red states that overwhelmingly backed former President Donald Trump in 2020. These include the seats held by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in states that Trump won by 39 and 8 percentage points, respectively.
Democrats must also defend five other seats the Cook Political Report has rated as “lean Democratic,” including Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Three of those — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — are also key presidential battleground states that Biden narrowly won in 2020 after flipping them to blue.
Meanwhile, of the 11 seats Republicans must defend, 10 are considered “solid Republican,” and only one is considered “likely Republican,” according to Cook Political Report.
Democrats grapple with possible wave of retirements
Democrats’ strategy won’t be made clear until the party knows which seats are likely to be vacated by retirements. One Democrat has already announced her intent to retire instead of launching a reelection bid, and others are expected to follow suit in the coming months.
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) announced earlier this month that she would not seek reelection in 2024, opening up a seat in Michigan that she has held since 2001. As more Democrats in battleground states mull retirement, the likelihood increases that Republicans can flip key seats.
As a result, all eyes are on Manchin and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), who are considered two of the most vulnerable Democrats heading into the 2024 cycle.
Manchin has not yet indicated whether he plans to run for reelection, but the West Virginia Democrat has become a top target for Republicans as he considers another term in the reliably red state. Manchin has earned himself a reputation as a centrist Democrat, often standing in the party’s way of advancing its agenda — making him more vulnerable to GOP attacks.
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Tester’s seat is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic seats, as he is running in a state that Trump won by 16.4 percentage points in 2020. However, Tester told MSNBC in December that he “feels good about his chances” and will announce his decision sometime in the coming weeks.
The Democratic incumbent also benefits from a 60% approval rating and has handily been reelected twice since taking office in 2007.