Voters view presidential elections through kaleidoscopes. For long periods, nothing fundamentally changes. But at certain moments, voters refocus and everything changes. 

President Joe Biden started as the 2020 front-runner but hit the skids when he lost the first three state contests by wide margins. Then came South Carolina, and Biden’s huge win there altered the race’s dynamics. With lightning speed, Democrats made a collective decision to unite behind him. The kaleidoscope had shifted.

Heading into 2024, we’ve already seen a shift. After Donald Trump’s ill-timed presidential campaign announcement and the widespread losses of his candidates in November, the picture suddenly looked different. Trump was no longer viewed as the prohibitive party favorite. Gov. Ron DeSantis’s big reelection victory in Florida made him a serious alternative.

GOP presidential wannabes have been understandably cautious. They’re trying to figure out the delicate dance of running against Trump without offending Trump’s supporters. Even though DeSantis has been sparring with the former president as a likely opponent, he’s maintained a 79% favorable rating among people who voted for Trump in 2020. It’s expected that former South Carolina governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley will soon join the race.

DeSantis is campaigning by governing. He’s using his job to show Republicans what a post-Trump conservative leader looks like. GOP nomination prospects that are no longer holding office — Trump, Haley, Mike Pence, Asa Hutchinson, and Mike Pompeo — can’t do that. While polls show Trump regaining some lost ground lately, many party leaders have soured on his chances. According to a Fox News poll, 56% of all voters say they lack confidence in Trump. State polls show 57% of Republican primary voters in South Carolina and 70% in New Hampshire aren’t voting for him.

On the Democratic side, party leaders are carefully tip-toeing around the reality of Joe Biden’s advanced age. He will be 82 at the time of the next election. Though Biden is popular with Democrats — an Economist/YouGov poll shows he’s 87% favorable among fellow partisans — many hope he doesn’t run again. One survey of Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire finds Biden with only 18% of the vote, running behind his own secretary of transportation, Pete Buttigieg. A Fox News poll shows that 64% of voters nationwide don’t think Biden is a "strong leader." Moreover, 81% see America as a "dysfunctional family that’s breaking apart."

There is growing buzz about Democratic candidates to replace Biden should he not run. In addition to Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, new mentions include Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gov. Wes Moore of Maryland, and Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia.

Shapiro, 49, was elected governor of Pennsylvania in November by a sizable 15-point margin. An establishment liberal, he won with bipartisan support and hopes to govern that way. Moore, 44, became Maryland’s first black governor last month. He served in the U.S. Army and then worked as an investment banker, a television producer, and as CEO of the Robin Hood Foundation, an anti-poverty organization. Warnock, 53, is another possibility. Democrats have taken note of his skills as a campaigner. Over the last two years, the Baptist pastor and party progressive has won two tough elections and two brutal runoffs for the U.S. Senate in swing state Georgia.

Despite the buzz, these three Democrats may be more realistic vice presidential than presidential prospects. For now, it’s doubtful any major Democrat will challenge Biden. But if one does, Democrats could have another 1968 on their hands - when a Democratic president dropped out after a poor showing in the New Hampshire primary.

The kaleidoscope will surely shift again.

Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst, pollster, and writer. He publishes  LunchtimePolitics.com , a nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion.