The 2024 House map is starting to form as Republicans and Democrats prepare to brawl over which party will seize control of the lower chamber, with only one incumbent lawmaker's race considered to be even worse than a toss-up.
All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those now held by Democrats compared to Republicans.
REPUBLICANS HOLD SLIGHT ADVANTAGE IN RACE FOR HOUSE CONTROL IN FIRST RATINGS FOR 2024 CYCLE
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report released its first ratings for the 2024 House playing field, with 10 Democratic seats considered toss-ups compared to just nine for Republicans. Of those, only one is considered so uncertain that it has earned its own category: the seat held by embattled Rep. George Santos (R-NY).
Here’s a breakdown of which seats are considered to be the most vulnerable heading into the next election cycle.
George Santos considered ‘most doomed incumbent’
Santos is among the list of the most vulnerable incumbents for reelection, with the Cook Political Report deeming him the “single most doomed incumbent in the House” for the 2024 cycle.
Santos was elected to Congress in November after defeating Democratic candidate Robert Zimmerman to represent New York’s 3rd Congressional District. However, he has faced intense scrutiny since his win after he admitted to making false statements about his educational background, work experience, finances, and other personal details. He also faces a number of investigations into his campaign finances after it was discovered he reported a number of unusual expenses during the midterm cycle.
An overwhelming majority of voters in Santos’s district say he should resign, with a majority of both Democrats and Republicans calling on him to do so. Roughly 89% of Democrats and 71% of Republicans in his district say the freshman lawmaker should step down from office, according to a recent poll from Newsday and Siena College.
Meanwhile, Santos has remained adamant he has no plans to step down and even indicated he plans to run for reelection come 2024.
New York Republicans face tough challenge to defend seats
A handful of Republican freshmen lawmakers from New York are considered to be the biggest cluster of vulnerable candidates in 2024, according to the Cook Political Report. That list includes Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, and Brandon Williams, who all won their races by less than 4 percentage points.
The group also benefited in their midterm races from the lackluster popularity of Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY), who failed to garner much Democratic turnout in the Empire State. This time, the four freshmen can expect higher voter turnout as voters head to the polls to weigh in on the presidential election.
D’Esposito is expected to face the biggest challenges as he must vie for reelection in a district that backed President Joe Biden by 14 points in the 2020 election.
Locally popular Democrats seek to hang on in Trump country
Other competitive races include three Democrats who represent districts where former President Donald Trump won in 2020, including Reps. Mary Peltola (D-AK), Jared Golden (D-ME), and Marcy Kaptur (D-OH).
Peltola is expected to face the toughest battle of the three, as Alaska Republicans have recently issued petitions to do away with ranked choice voting — a newly implemented voting method that helped the Democrat defeat Republican candidate Sarah Palin in November. However, the incumbent is likely to be safe as the initiative to eliminate ranked choice voting wouldn’t appear on the ballot until 2024 and Peltola remains popular in the state.
There are a handful of other Democrats who must defend their seats in districts where Biden won by only single digits in 2020, including Reps. Eric Sorensen (D-IL), Frank Mrvan (D-IN), Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), Susie Lee (D-NV), Pat Ryan (D-NY), and Chris Deluzio (D-PA). Each of those members narrowly won their midterm elections by single digits.
Republicans in Biden districts open opportunities for Democrats to flip
Although Republicans hold a slight advantage over the Democrats by entering the 2024 playing field with the House majority, there are several GOP incumbents who are considered to be somewhat vulnerable as they seek reelection in districts Biden won in 2020.
At least 18 Republicans are running in districts that Biden carried in 2020. Of those, five are seeking reelection for seats they won by less than 3 percentage points in the midterm elections, including Reps. David Schweikert (R-AZ), Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), John Duarte (R-CA), Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ), and Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR).
The large number of vulnerable seats could give the Democrats a chance to flip some districts as they vie to regain the House majority.
Democrats brace for possible map changes as redistricting battles continue
Making things more difficult for the Democrats is the redistricting of North Carolina and Ohio, which could change political boundaries in the two battleground states in the Republicans’ favor.
“In both states, Republicans captured state supreme court majorities in November, potentially allowing GOP-led legislatures to pass fresh gerrymanders for 2024,” wrote David Wasserman, the senior editor of Cook Political Report. “In theory, they could eviscerate up to seven Democratic seats — effectively doubling their current House margin.”
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Approximately 46 lawsuits were filed in 22 states seeking to overturn newly redrawn congressional maps that were implemented ahead of the midterm elections, according to the Democracy Docket, a liberal voting rights organization. Roughly 32% of those lawsuits challenged the maps for alleged partisan bias, with the majority of those being filed in Ohio and North Carolina.
That puts at least six Democratic incumbents in toss-up races, including Reps. Don Davis (D-NC), Kathy Manning (D-NC), Wiley Nickel (D-NC), Jeff Jackson (D-NC), Greg Landsman (D-OH), and Emilia Sykes (D-OH). All but Manning were elected during the midterm elections using temporary maps, meaning they are likely to face reelection in a district that is different from the one they won in 2022.