The 2024 Republican presidential nomination fight will test whether South Carolina is big enough for a home state son and daughter — or either of them.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) is seriously considering joining the GOP fray for the right to challenge President Joe Biden or whoever emerges as the 2024 Democratic nominee. Declared candidates, for now, are former President Donald Trump and his administration’s ambassador to the United Nations for its first two years, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. That puts Scott on a collision course with Haley, who a decade ago appointed the then-House member to an open Senate seat.
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Haley was South Carolina governor from 2011-17 and announced her 2024 candidacy on Feb. 14 with a campaign video. Haley and Scott are pushing optimistic, forward-looking messages, an implicit rebuke of claims by Trump and allies that the former president was cheated out of a second White House term by “rigged” state election systems.
Scott came to the Senate in early 2013 after a single two-year House term. He was previously a member of the Charleston County Council and the South Carolina state House. Scott is the only black Republican in the Senate.
And while Scott was not initially a bold-faced name in the 2024 field, recent moves show he’s serious about running. Scott’s political operation has hired former Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner and longtime Republican operative Rob Collins to co-chair a super PAC (Opportunity Matters Fund Action), which will pay for campaign travel and other expenses.
But the prospect of Scott and Haley both running in their home state probably bolsters the already-strong prospects of Trump there. The former president has proved enduringly popular in the Palmetto State. Republican House candidates from South Carolina in 2022 practically tripped over themselves in describing their fealty to Trump.
And the former president’s protectionist trade policies, particularly tariffs on China, remain popular in a state that has been hit hard economically by exports from the main geopolitical rival of the United States. Campaign ads regularly warn of jobs being shipped to China, along with other foreign destinations like Mexico, playing right into Trump’s messaging.
Cruz Control
One much-discussed 2024 Republican possibility has taken himself out of the running, Sen. Ted Cruz (TX).
The 2016 GOP runner-up to Trump will run for another Senate term next year, not president, he recently told supporters.
Cruz at times has seemed wistful about the 2016 campaign, even though he came up short against Trump, calling it "the most fun I've ever had in my life," while adding he'd run again "in a heartbeat."
But for the 2024 GOP nomination, Cruz hasn’t positioned himself as prominently as declared candidates like Haley, and a scrum of Republicans are taking a hard look at the race, including Scott of South Carolina, Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL), former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and Gov. Chris Sununu (NH).
Cruz in 2016, four years into his first Senate term, took a beating from GOP primary rival Trump. The wealthy businessman suggested, falsely, that the senator’s Cuban-born father was involved in the JFK assassination and made derogatory comments about the physical appearance of Cruz’s wife.
Initially reluctant to endorse Trump, Cruz came around. After Trump won the White House, Cruz became a political ally and vocal defender against Democratic attacks.
As for Cruz's 2024 Senate reelection bid, while he’s not particularly endangered, he can’t take it for granted.
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In 2018, then-Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke became a media sensation in his race against Cruz and came within 3 points of winning. Since then, Texas has moved somewhat more toward the center. Trump in 2020 won the state by less than 6 points, the narrowest margin for the GOP since 1996.
Texas, though, is still a red state. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in 2022 scored a double-digit reelection win, over O’Rourke, by that point a perennial candidate after a failed bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.
Some Democrats, though, are still eyeing a race against Cruz. Potential Democratic Senate contenders include former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, a onetime San Antonio mayor, and Rep. Colin Allred (D), who represents the northern Dallas 32nd Congressional District and is a former NFL linebacker who later became a lawyer.