


Those who tuned into 60 Minutes on New Year’s Day were treated to April Fools’ Day three months early. Viewers were transported back 55 years to the inaugural season of CBS’s flagship Sunday night broadcast, which featured the publication of Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb, a mega-bestseller that predicted impending doom because global resources could not keep pace with population growth. “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines — hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death,” declared the book’s opening paragraph.
Since 1968, the Earth’s population has more than doubled, and Ehrlich has joined the rapidly growing nonagenarian age cohort. But many leftist activists would still have us believe Ehrlich’s Malthusian nightmare is just around the corner.
Unfortunately, Julian Lincoln Simon is not available for comment. The eminent economist died 25 years ago this month. Like Ehrlich, Simon was born in 1932 to a Jewish family and grew up in suburban Newark. But unlike Ehrlich, Simon had a more comprehensive understanding of mankind. Ehrlich, a butterfly expert, believed that human beings were subject to the same ecological restraints as insects. Simon knew better. Because the human brain is “the ultimate resource,” Simon said, mankind’s long-term potential is limitless.
And he was right. The Simon-Ehrlich debate is often mischaracterized as one between optimism and pessimism. That is untrue. Simon, who spent much of his adult life suffering from depression, was not preternaturally optimistic. But he was empirically correct. Contrary to Ehrlich’s doomsday predictions, long-term trends indicate that food and resources are becoming less scarce as the global population grows. The ability of human beings in free markets to transcend natural limits to human flourishing through innovation provides the explanation.
As an economist, Simon was accustomed to applying human intellect to solve problems. In fact, he devised the current system of offering rewards to passengers to alleviate overbooked airline flights in a 1977 Wall Street Journal op-ed titled “Wherein the Author Offers a Modest Proposal.”
Simon’s decision to challenge Ehrlich to a bet also displayed Swiftian brilliance. The premise of the celebrated Simon-Ehrlich wager was simple. Would the price of a $1,000 basket of five strategic metals (chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten) be higher or lower in 10 years? Ehrlich said higher. Simon said lower. The loser would pay the difference in price. Ten years later, the global population had grown by more than 850 million, yet the price of those metals had collapsed. Ehrlich sent Simon a check for $576.07 signed not by Ehrlich but by his wife. Psychologists are left to speculate why.
Despite getting everything wrong, Ehrlich has bested Simon in the accumulation of awards, prizes, and honoraria. But even here, Ehrlich cannot escape being one-upped by Simon. Each year, the Competitive Enterprise Institute awards the Julian L. Simon Memorial Award to a deserving recipient. The award itself contains elements of the five metals at the center of the Simon-Ehrlich wager. No similar award exists in Ehrlich’s name — until now.
To even things up, I am awarding the first ever Paul R. Ehrlich Award for spectacular pseudoscience. This year’s winner is Dr. Anthony Fauci for his incorrect insistence that shutting down schools and businesses was an effective method of countering COVID-19. Fauci’s destructive recommendations and the degree to which he has been decorated and renumerated despite being wrong can only be described as Ehrlichesque. Congratulations, doctor, your Ehrlich Award is well deserved.
Less deserved is the criticism directed at 60 Minutes for giving Ehrlich a platform to repeat his debunked thesis unironically. This is, after all, the outlet that brought us Dan Rather’s career-ending George W. Bush-Texas Air National Guard story, which was famously described in the New York Times as “fake but accurate,” and more recently featured correspondent Lesley Stahl falsely claiming Hunter Biden’s laptop could not be verified. A more appropriate platform for Ehrlich does not exist.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM RESTORING AMERICAPaul F. Petrick is an attorney in Cleveland, Ohio.