As Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in New York to speak at the U.N. last week, and in advance of his meeting with President Trump on Monday, countless rumors and details were leaked and speculation made over the plan being proposed to end the war against Hamas in Gaza. I lost count of how many people reached out to ask, “What do you think about Trump’s Gaza deal.”
Now that the rumors have been resolved with the presentation of President Trump’s 20-point plan and Israel’s acceptance of it, it’s important to ask questions and analyze what might be.
Israel has accepted the terms that Hamas (which has not accepted) must release all the remaining 48 hostages – dead and alive - within 72 hours. This is the first condition that must be met. Did the clock already start, and will Hamas even agree? Will it make up excuses as it already has that they have lost track of some of the hostages and will these be accepted? Will the Red Cross send in a search team?
There are many terms and clauses that seem impossible for Hamas to accept or fulfill even if they utter words of acceptance. What if Hamas does not accept, or fulfill them? Technically, the terms allow for IDF freedom of action if that happens. If that happens, however, will the world leaders who have been singularly critical of Israel, uttering cries of “genocide” and “ethnic cleansing,” withdraw their objections and be on Israel’s side, or will it be more of the same, or worse, that Israel can do no right and does not have the right to defend itself and eliminate the Hamas threat.
President Trump has said if this happens Israel will have the green light to act in Gaza as it sees fit, to “finish the job.” But are those just hollow words? Too many times he’s spoken about “all hell breaking lose” if Hamas did not meet certain demands. They have not, and all hell has not broken loose. This has emboldened Hamas, thinking that it can get away with anything and there will be no consequences.
If Qatar says it can get Hamas to agree now, why couldn’t they do that over the past two years? Why wouldn’t they? Qatar may host the US’s largest miltiary base in the region, but it is not an ally by any measure.
While roundly criticized for the operation, one has to wonder if Israel’s attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar actually had a positive influence on moving Qatar in this direction. The same can be asked about Israel’s current operation to eliminate Hamas strongholds in Gaza City and elsewhere.
What if Hamas does agree? Even if they do, you can’t trust them. As radical Islamic terrorists, they are more likely to follow the Islamic principle of taqiyah which not only allows but encourages lying to infidels to achieve victory rather than abandoning or muting its jihadi beliefs.
Many have cited the abandonment of Israel annexing Judea and Samaria (aka the “West Bank”), specifically in light of Western countries’ recent recognition of “Palestine,” something considered contrary to, and even illegal, according to the Oslo Accords. While true, it is also likely part of a bigger deal to expand the Abraham Accords, preventing hurdles for countries like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and others to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel.
Financially, this could be a big windfall for Israel that alleviates the vast economic impact of the war that Israelis have only begun to feel. Peaceful relations could usher in vast business deals and investments, not just in Israel but Gaza as well, where Israel would also be the beneficiary. Indirectly at least, this would mean Arab and Islamic states will pay for the outcome of the war (which many of them funded in supporting Hamas).
However, practically, the deal relates to Hamas in Gaza. The issue of Judea and Samaria is relevant in Hamas’ continued presence there among Jewish communities and in Jerusalem, where terror attacks are still a threat and may increase now as a reflexive response to the deal.
Simply put, Hamas cannot be trusted. Actual democratic elections may risk ushering in a popular Hamas victory as poll after poll among Palestinian Arabs show widespread support for Hamas and their massacre. While the terms says Hamas cannot be involved in future governance (in Gaza), some will cite their possible acceptance of a deal as needed reform, and acceptance of Israel, which will whitewash their Islamic genocidal intent and make them “legitimate” partners and participants to those who seek to undermine Israel.
Israelis want peace and always have. It’s why Israel made flawed deals in the past such as Oslo, offered the Arabs up to 97 percent of the land on which they claim their state, even shared authority in Jerusalem, and unilaterally withdrew from Lebanon (2000) and Gaza (2005), only to see these blow up into war and terror.
That’s why there have been so many civil and political protests engaging hundreds of thousands of Israelis on a regular basis. It’s also one of the reasons that the Oct. 7 massacre was so horrific: it laid bare that there was no peace to be negotiated with Hamas and other Islamists who have been indoctrinated for generations to hate and delegitimize Israel, only striving to eradicate Israel and the Jewish people.
It’s one of the reasons that supporting this deal is so difficult because we do want peace and are still prepared to attempt impossible ways to achieve it, with the hope and expectation that our Arab neighbors will have a change of heart. Unfortunately, for decades, too many hopes have been dashed by reality. More than hope, prayers are needed.
Will there be Arab protests in Gaza, Ramallah, Cairo, Amman, or Doha or anywhere else demanding Hamas acceptance? Indeed, if there were truly famine and genocide taking place as Israel has been accused, one would think that every Palestinian Arab loving person everywhere in the world would be begging for this plan to be fulfilled immediately. We have seen none of that.
Author's Note: To explore this further, join a panel of experts on Saturday, Oct. 4, at 2:00pm Eastern/11:00am Pacific (U.S.) for a deep conversation and analysis about these and other issues on the second anniversary of the Hamas attack and massacre of October 7, 2023.
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