The political ground beneath the Democrats is cracking, and Hispanic moderates are leading the exodus. For decades, the Democrat Party treated Hispanic voters as a monolithic, dependable voting bloc — loyal foot soldiers in the progressive coalition. But that era is over.
The latest data confirms what many observers on the ground already knew: Hispanic moderates are walking away from the Democratic Party in numbers so large, they’re reshaping the American political map.
A new report from Catalist, a Democrat-aligned data firm, shows just how staggering the shift has been. From 2016 to 2024, Democrats have hemorrhaged support across virtually every subgroup of Hispanic voters. The decline is especially steep among working-class Hispanics, Hispanic women, younger voters, and even urban residents. In many cases, the Democratic margin has dropped by more than 22 points, and often far more.
But the real earthquake comes from the ideological center. According to data from Blue Rose Research, Democratic support among Hispanic moderates has plummeted by 46 percentage points, falling from a +62 advantage in 2016 to just +16 in 2024. That’s not a blip — it’s a realignment. Hispanic moderates now behave politically much like white moderates, voting on values and ideology, not ethnic identity.
In short, Democrats lost the Hispanic middle, and it may cost them the White House.
No one has capitalized on this shift more than President Donald Trump. In 2020, he achieved the highest Hispanic support of any Republican in modern history, earning 46% of the Hispanic vote and a stunning 54% among Hispanic males. These numbers are not an anomaly. They are the result of clear-eyed policies, cultural common sense, and a willingness to talk about issues most Democrats tiptoe around.
Recommended
So, what’s driving this mass defection? The simplest answer is that the Democratic Party no longer speaks the language of Hispanic moderates — neither literally nor ideologically.
Many Hispanic moderates believe the Democrats have veered far too left on economic and cultural issues. In a 2024 YouGov survey, 3 out of 5 said the party had gone too far on both fronts. These voters are not interested in ideological experiments. They care about jobs, economic stability, public safety, and cultural norms rooted in family and tradition.
Regarding immigration, Hispanic moderates defy the caricature painted by the Left. While the Democratic Party champions open borders and lenient asylum policies, a solid majority of Hispanic moderates believe America needs to secure its borders and reduce illegal immigration. Sixty-three percent support using presidential powers to stop illegal border crossings, and many favor stricter asylum rules and tougher enforcement, including empowering the National Guard and local law enforcement to remove criminal aliens.
Crime is another major flashpoint. While progressives push to defund the police, Hispanic moderates are heading in the opposite direction. Support for increased police funding and stronger penalties for attacking officers outpaces opposition by 53 points. Even bold proposals like the death penalty for drug traffickers draw more support than you might expect. These voters have lived through the consequences of lawlessness, and they want order restored.
Perhaps the most dramatic cultural divide lies in the area of gender ideology. Despite progressive orthodoxy on transgender rights for minors, less than 1 in 5 Hispanic moderates support providing puberty blockers and gender surgeries to children. A majority want stricter regulations or outright bans on these procedures, and nearly two-thirds believe schools should not be places where gender ideology is discussed with children. These views aren’t extreme — they’re mainstream among the Hispanic middle, and they stand in direct opposition to today’s Democratic platform.
Energy policy also reflects this divide. While Democratic leaders push for an aggressive transition to renewable energy, 74% of Hispanic moderates prioritize the cost and reliability of energy over climate concerns. Just 21% say climate change is their top priority. These voters overwhelmingly favor an “all of the above” strategy that includes oil, gas, nuclear, and renewables. Most reject the idea of phasing out fossil fuels, and a strong majority supports increased domestic production of oil and gas.
The reality is this: Hispanic moderates, who make up the largest ideological group among Hispanic voters, are no longer content to vote their identity. They are voting their values. They are voting for the America First agenda of secure borders, safe communities, economic opportunity, traditional norms, and common-sense energy policies.
Democrats built their coalition on the belief that identity politics would always trump ideology. But that calculation is collapsing. Today’s Hispanic moderates are proving that group loyalty has its limits, especially when the party they once supported has left them behind.
If the Republican presidential candidate wins again in 2028, it will be because voters like these decided to walk away. The data tells the story. The shift is real, and the Hispanic middle is never going back.
Jorge Martínez is National Director of Hispanic Outreach for America First Works. He formerly served as press secretary at the U.S. Department of Justice.