Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump successfully completed his first major international trip to the Middle East. His first stop was in Saudi Arabia on May 13, after which he traveled to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The President met the ruler of Syria Ahmed al-Sharaa. The Trump team says it has attracted over a trillion dollars in Gulf investment to the U.S., is attempting to bring an end to the Gaza war, stop Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state, and avoid a clash between Turkey and Israel in Syria. Washington also appears committed to persuading the Saudi kingdom to normalize relations with Israel and join the Abraham Accords.
Countries outside of the Middle East are joining the Abraham Accords as well: Trump’s peace envoy Stephen Witkoff announced that Armenia and Azerbaijan may be next. Across the Caspian, in Central Asia, resource-rich Kazakhstan has long sought to break out of its landlocked position in the region through its multi-vector foreign policy approach, championed by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The Kazakhs are the world’s largest supplier of uranium, with significant reserves of the rare earths and strategic minerals for specialty high-tech manufacture that the Trump Administration is working diligently to free the U.S. from dependence on Chinese supply. Astana also has good working relationships with Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other key players in the Greater Middle East.
As Trump and his team seek to transform the world order and shift some of the weight off America’s shoulders, it is essential to involve partners who will reliably step up to further peace, maintain order, and foster prosperity. Kazakhstan’s potential contributions should make it such a key partner. The U.S.’s latest moves to stabilize Southwest Asia could greatly benefit from bringing this secular Muslim-majority state into the Abraham Accords.
Solving the World’s Turmoil Through Diplomacy
U.S. efforts to achieve a detente with Russia, along with its complex dealings with Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, represent key opportunities for Kazakhstan to diversify its international engagements further.
Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine has been a setback for Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy, which seeks to forge relations with all major players in the world. The largest Central Asian nation finds itself uncomfortably sandwiched between its former liege, Russia, the rising power of China, and the West. Given its close trade relations with Moscow, Astana has suffered economically from the sanctions regime on the Kremlin, receiving little in return from the Biden Administration. In addition, Russia’s weakening in the wake of the Ukraine conflict has given China a disproportionate amount of space to expand its influence in Central Asia.
Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel triggered another war, which quickly escalated into a major regional conflict stretching from the Mediterranean Sea in the west to the Arabian Sea in the south and the Caspian Sea in the north. While Kazakhstan has no direct border with the Middle East, the country is not immune to the increased volatility in the Arab-majority region. As a Muslim-majority nation and a key member of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Astana has a stake in making sure that the growing instability in the Middle East is capped.
Kazakhstan’s Ascendancy as a Middle Power
A secular Muslim state, which successfully transitioned from being a former Soviet republic and within three decades developed into a “middle power”, Kazakhstan cannot remain passive while its strategic southwestern flank descends into turmoil. The country played a critical role in efforts to end the Syrian civil war. Known as the Astana Process, Kazakhstan facilitated nearly two dozen rounds of trilateral talks between Russia, Turkey, and Iran, the principal stakeholders in the conflict, from 2017 to 2024. Similarly, as a success story of post-USSR denuclearization, Kazakhstan held several rounds of the P-5+1 talks focused on Iran’s controversial nuclear program in early 2013 in Almaty, contributing to the interim agreement later that year.
In the past dozen years, Kazakhstan’s strategic environment has become increasingly challenging. Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev assumed office in March 2019, less than a year after the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran. In August 2021, the internationally backed government in Afghanistan fell on Biden’s watch. The Taliban’s return to power forced Central Asian states to engage with the revived emirate, hoping to prevent Islamist radicalism from radiating northwards into the region.
At a critical time when Kazakhstan is engaged in an arduous process of political and economic reforms, it can ill afford to see instability rock its southern flank. While the Trump Administration, through its deal-making efforts, is trying to calm things down in the Middle East, Astana realizes that the region’s fragility is increasing.
Iran is in the throes of systemic change as it tries to salvage its regional position through talks with the United States. Meanwhile, Turkey and Israel find themselves increasingly at odds in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime.
Washington is also seeking an unprecedented reset in its relations with Moscow, which would be a positive development for Astana. Kazakhstan is not only trying to secure its interests; its role aligns with the desired American approach, thereby avoiding the need for heavy lifting. Indeed, Astana has credibility with each of the four major Middle Eastern players. Turkey is a close ally with whom Kazakhstan is a member of the Organization of Turkic States. Kazakhstan is one of the rare cases of a significant Muslim nation that has maintained friendly relations with Israel for over three decades.
A Trusted Partner
Just last month, the Speaker of the Knesset, Amir Ohana, visited Astana to discuss economic cooperation, investment opportunities, and joint projects. A month earlier, Israeli President Herzog spoke with President Tokayev, and they agreed that Herzog would visit Kazakhstan later this year. The two countries maintain a robust, multi-dimensional partnership spanning a wide range of sectors, including trade, investment, and technological collaboration. With over 25% of its oil imports coming from Kazakhstan, the Central Asian nation plays a crucial role in Israel’s energy security.
Kazakhstan is a trusted security partner in the UN peacekeeping force on the Golan, as it was a part of the US-led coalition of the willing in Iraq and Afghanistan. Astana hosts a global congress of world and traditional religions, including participation from the Pope, Muslim ulema leaders, and Israeli chief rabbis. It has also excelled in deprogramming and mainstreaming radical Islamists who fought in Syria, along with their families, who were repatriated to Kazakhstan—an experience that may be vital for post-war Gaza.
Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia have maintained close ties as oil-exporting nations. Even Iran, despite doctrinal differences, has upheld strong bilateral relations with Kazakhstan through trade, as both countries are littoral states of the Caspian Sea. Kazakhstan can leverage these relationships with Middle Eastern nations to help the United States mitigate regional conflicts.
Integrating Astana into the framework of the Abraham Accords would be another geopolitical win for the Trump Administration, helping Washington mitigate risks along various Middle Eastern fault lines and promoting security and prosperity in Southwest Asia.