As Washington works to defuse conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, Beijing is intensifying its drive to economically dominate Central Asia. The U.S., however, is not sitting idle. By mediating the South Caucasus peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan and advancing the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), the United States has gained a strategic opening to blunt China’s advance in Eurasia.
This is a good start, but it’s not enough if the Trump administration wants to be as tough on China as it claims. Should the U.S. build influence in the Greater Caspian region in conjunction with its initiatives in the Caucasus, it would create a strategic vector in the heart of Eurasia that physically and geoeconomically balances Russia, Iran, and China. This would provide Washington with a lot of strategic depth. To seize this moment, President Donald Trump’s administration must expand U.S. engagement east of the Caspian.
The simplest way to achieve this ambitious geopolitical goal is through a closer partnership with Kazakhstan by investing in critical minerals, energy, and infrastructure. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will use his upcoming speech at the end of September at the 80th United Nations General Assembly in New York to highlight Astana’s strategy for navigating a changing international landscape. In 2023, Tokayev met with President Joe Biden as part of the C5+1. It would also make sense to have a meeting with President Trump this year.
On the home front, in a September 15th meeting chaired by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, the Kazakh cabinet approved a National Action Plan to implement the priorities laid out by Tokayev in his Sept. 8 State of the Nation address with a bold vision for further reforms in the country. His ongoing reforms will enhance the social, political, and economic development of the country.
Tokayev outlined an ambitious agenda: advancing political reforms including unicameral parliament, establishing a Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development to promote economic and administrative modernization, restructuring the investment system to direct capital into priority sectors, and expanding trade corridors. In his speech to a joint session of parliament, he also supported the Aug. 15 U.S.–Russia summit in Alaska and the Washington-brokered peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia on Aug. 8.
The Kazakhs were clearly signaling that they welcome the attempted Moscow-Washington rapprochement and American-led diplomacy — in keeping with their signature multi-vector foreign policy doctrine. On one hand, there is good news in that, according to data released last month by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kazakhstan’s GDP per capita, at $14,770, is set to surpass both Russia’s $14,260 and China’s $13,690. At the same time, however, the actions of its two great power neighbors create a challenging regional environment.
The three-and-a-half-year conflict in Ukraine has had numerous negative effects on Kazakhstan —complicating its economic ties, testing its sovereignty, and threatening regional stability. Central Asia’s largest country faces challenges on several fronts. Its dependence on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium leaves its energy sector vulnerable. Soaring import costs are driving inflation and straining living standards. The success of President Trump’s efforts to bring an end to the Ukraine war is thus hugely important for the Kazakhs.
A much bigger test for Kazakhstan's multi-vector foreign policy comes from China's efforts to increase the region’s economic dependence on the People’s Republic. Beijing seeks to strengthen this reliance and, in doing so, bring Central Asia further into its geoeconomic and geostrategic sphere of influence. This was clear during the Aug. 31-Sept. 1 Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin and the Sept. 3 military parade in Beijing commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, at which China’s President Xi attempted to rewrite history by claiming that China defeated Japan. Tokayev was seated next to Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The presence of Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi certainly allowed China to shape global perceptions that it can lead a bloc of states outside U.S. influence and has the economic and hard power to back such leadership.
China's consolidation of its current geopolitical advantage in Central Asia should be of particular concern to the current U.S. administration. The Trump White House’s move to be responsible for the development of the 27-mile-long corridor linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through southern Armenia will unlock the strategic bottleneck in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, of which TRIPP is a new part. This strategically positions Washington, giving it direct access to Central Asia via a route that does not involve Russia, Iran, Afghanistan, or China.
The TRIPP can balance China’s influence in the region. However, it is only a strong opening move, as Beijing is gearing up to benefit from the TRIPP, which the Chinese hope will serve as an enabler to connect its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) network with Europe. China has been working closely with Azerbaijan to facilitate rising freight flows between the two countries. While China prefers routing cargo via Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan through a future railroad, this project might give it too much influence in the region.
The United States must leverage the TRIPP as a strategic springboard to strengthen ties with Kazakhstan and counterbalance China in the Trans-Caspian region. There is considerable room for enhanced US-Kazakhstan cooperation in the areas of economic integration, infrastructure development, critical minerals, energy security, regional connectivity, and governance assistance.
The U.S. can strengthen its partnership with Kazakhstan by investing in key areas in a manner that is mutually beneficial and strategically significant. Joint ventures in mining and processing of lithium, rare earths, and uranium can secure stable supply chains. Energy cooperation, including oil, gas, uranium, and renewable projects, can diversify Kazakhstan’s energy partnerships. Investments in rail, intermodal terminals, ports, and digital logistics platforms can enhance Eurasian connectivity.
As Kazakhstan is developing its own IT and AI industries, U.S. companies can cooperate and benefit. In the era of rapid AI technologies development, the demand for uranium is expected to skyrocket. The United States cannot remain passive while China is aggressively consolidating access to critical mineral reserves in Central Asia, including uranium. Kazakhstan accounts for 40 percent of global natural uranium production. In this context, it is imperative for the U.S. to prioritize securing reliable supply chains and establish favorable conditions for partnership with Kazakhstan — especially as the investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, to restrict imports that threaten to impair national security, offers no meaningful contribution to this strategic objective.Together, these measures can deepen economic ties, secure critical resources, and position Astana as a reliable regional partner while greatly enhancing Washington’s influence in Central Asia.
By deepening economic, infrastructure, and strategic ties with Kazakhstan, the U.S. can provide the country and the broader Central Asia region with alternatives to Chinese-led trade, energy, and connectivity initiatives, thereby limiting Beijing’s expanding influence in Eurasia.
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