President Donald Trump is trying to force not only Ukraine and Russia to make peace but also the Europeans to carry their own weight in the defense of their own continent. It’s astonishing how angry the establishment is about this. It’s almost as if they want this meat grinder to continue forever and for America to subsidize the Europeans’ bizarre social pathologies forever. But what can’t go on forever won’t go on forever. Change is coming. We have to start accepting some realities. Childish clichés and moral posturing have no place in foreign policy. When somebody starts answering your arguments by calling you literally Hitler and saying that you suck Putin’s toes, you can be absolutely sure they don’t want to contend with substantive arguments. But they’re going to have to. Trump is serious about ending this war and resetting our relationship with NATO. They aren’t going wait him out or shame him into submission.
And let me make something clear at the beginning. I like the Ukrainians. I trained them and they were with us when I deployed. I would like them to be able to win their war. I would also like to have a pony. Wishing doesn’t make things so. It’s time to get hard-nosed and real about what’s going on so we can stop this nightmare before it spins completely out of control. And when two nuclear-armed powers are facing each other, spinning out of control can be really bad.
1. Russia is absolutely in the wrong for invading Ukraine. Nothing Ukraine did excuses or justifies Russia’s actions. But we still need to understand why they did it. They had reasons, even if you and I don’t agree with their reasons. It’s not simply because Vladimir Putin is Mr. Burns, tenting his fingers and planning evil deeds for the sake of doing evil. There is much more going on in this conflict than in the portrait painted by the media and establishment. It involves history, ethnicity, and other factors we Westerners do not and cannot understand. Some of those facts include that Ukraine used to be part of Russia, and Russia believes it should be in the future. Also, there are huge numbers of ethnic Russians, who Ukrainians do not like – Ukrainians get mad at you if you speak Russian to them – in those areas that Putin has captured. Further, Russia is paranoid, and not without reason, about an invasion from the West. Look at Napoleon, look at Hitler. We may not think that it should be upset about Ukraine joining NATO, but Russia thinks it should be. Again, this isn’t to justify what Russia did. We need to understand why it did it even if we don’t agree with its motivations.
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2. Ukraine is not going to be able to win the war if the definition of winning the war is recovering all the conquered Ukrainian territory. A continued stalemate will result in many thousands of additional deaths. The idea that somehow, Ukraine, which has been nearly bled dry, is going to come up with the combat power to throw the Russians off its soil is just insane. That’s never going to happen. I would like it to happen, but it won’t. So, we’ve got to deal with the reality we’re facing.
3. Zelensky will have to accept the reality that America will need to be paid back for its aid, which means, as a practical matter, access to Ukraine’s mineral reserves. The establishment has been scandalized that Trump expects to be paid back, but why should America pick up the tab? It’s not our war. Zelensky, who stupidly has gotten himself crosswise with the new American government, stated that he would not require ten generations of Ukrainians to pay America back. So, does he propose that ten generations of Americans pay back the money America has to borrow to give to Zelensky? That’s just not going to fly with normal Americans.
4. Ukraine is an unbelievably corrupt country, and the idea that no substantial portion of our aid money has been stolen is ridiculous. There are going to be a lot of people getting very rich off the American aid, including many Americans. The fact that much of the establishment is so resistant to attempting to audit those funds indicates that they understand this, too.
5. The American people are, by and large, tired of subsidizing Ukraine’s end of this war. They are absolutely against American forces being involved. There is a lit fuse on America’s patience, and trying to stamp it out by shouting that anyone questioning perpetual subsidies of this war is Putin’s pal is not going to cut it. The fact is that Trump is probably Ukraine’s last chance to retain American support. The guy who follows Trump is going to be worse for Ukraine.
6. China is a substantially greater threat to the United States than Russia in the macro. The fact is that right now, we can’t confront both powers. We need to focus on China. That’s the major threat to the United States.
7. The Europeans should be taking the lead in supporting Ukraine and should be taking the lead in defending Europe. They are freaking out about this. It’s hilarious that their answer to Donald Trump telling them they need to step up and take charge of their own defense is to step up and take charge of their own defense to show Donald Trump what for. Typically, a threat involves promising to do something the person you’re threatening does not want you to do instead of exactly what he wants you to do.
8. The campaign to insult critics of past Ukraine policy by calling them Putin’s puppets and so forth is a lie and is going to result in enmity towards the idea of helping the Ukrainians. You cannot insult Americans into obedience. You cannot fail to address their legitimate concerns and expect them to agree with you.
9. Some of our NATO allies are participating in internal repression, including suppression of free speech and the right to organize and participate in elections via non-establishment parties. This dangerously undercuts the moral argument in favor of NATO. Americans have no desire to spend blood and treasure defending countries that arrest people for speaking. And the Europeans refuse to accept the judgment of their people. Just this week, the allegedly conservative German party that came in first in the election after promising to close German borders announced the very next day that it would not be closing borders. That’s bad. Why again should we spend money on these people? I mean, it’s only been 80 years.
10. It is in America’s interest that this war ends. We want to draw Russia away from China and closer to the West. It is not in our interest to have a war going on where our proxy is fighting with a nuclear-armed enemy, regardless of how moral the cause of Ukraine is. The only way this is going to happen is if the United States takes the lead and forces Ukraine to make painful concessions in order to end this dangerous bloodbath. In the harsh calculus of international politics, it’s critical that we bring the Russians into our orbit and get them away from the Chinese. Putin has an interest in that – the sparsely populated Siberian wilderness is right there north of China, full of all sorts of resources that China will eventually grab. Putin can’t stop it. He needs allies. Yes, Putin’s a bad guy, but this isn’t about good guys and bad guys. This is about protecting America’s interests. And it’s in America’s interest to stop this war and strip China of a major ally.
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