The US intelligence community recently presented assessments that Israel is considering strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, and that the attacks could come this year, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing two sources familiar with the developments.
One such assessment, including the timeframe, was presented during the last days of the Biden administration.
A second intelligence report provided in the first days of the Trump administration also said that Israel is mulling strikes on Iran, one of the sources said.
The first analysis said Israel would likely press the Trump administration to support the strikes, seeing the incoming Republican as more amenable to military action, two sources with knowledge of the assessment said.
According to the report, during the transition from Biden to Trump, some members of the latter’s staff considered having US forces join an Israeli attack.
The Prime Minister’s Office and the Israel Defense Forces declined to comment on the report, as did Directorate of National Intelligence and the National Security Council in the US.
Iran, which is sworn to Israel’s destruction, insists its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes. However, the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA has said that Iran is currently enriching uranium to levels that have no civilian use, and the country has obstructed international inspectors seeking to visit its facilities.
In addition, The New York Times reported earlier this month that American intelligence indicates a covert team of Iranian scientists was exploring ways to quickly develop a nuclear weapon if the country’s leadership decided to pursue one.
Some Israeli officials have indicated a desire to hit Iran, seeing a ripe opportunity given the damage Israel has inflicted on Iran and its proxies since the start of the Gaza war in 2023.
War erupted on October 7, 2023, when the Palestinian terror group Hamas led a devastating invasion of southern Israel that killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians. The next day, Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon began attacking across Israel’s northern border. As Israel battled Hamas in Gaza and responded to Hezbollah’s rocket fire, Iran-backed Houthis rebels also began firing drones and ballistic missiles at Israel.
In September Israel launched a major campaign against Hezbollah, decimating the terror group’s leadership and depleted its fighting abilities. A ceasefire was reached at the end of November. Hezbollah was long seen as a deterrent to an Israeli strike on Iran, due to the threat of its massive missile arsenal, but the war left it with greatly diminished capabilities.
Meanwhile, Israel bombed the Houthi rebels in Yemen — demonstrating its ability to strike even further than Iran — and in Syria, the Iran-aligned Assad regime was ousted by rebels who have since courted the West.
In spillover from the fighting, Iran twice fired massive missile and drone barrages at Israel which were largely thwarted by air defenses, in cooperation with the US and its regional allies.
Israel responded with two rounds of strikes on Iran, the second of which, in October, destroyed much of the Islamic Republic’s air defense systems as well as some key military facilities while demonstrating Israel’s ability to operate uninhibited over Iranian airspace.
At the time, then-US president Joe Biden reportedly urged Israel against hitting nuclear sites.
By contrast, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer reportedly left a November meeting with then-president-elect Donald Trump believing he would either support an Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities or direct a US strike on those sites himself.
In November last year, Defense Minister Israel Katz said, “Iran today is more exposed than ever to damage to its nuclear facilities.
“There is a chance of achieving the most important goal, to thwart and remove the threat of annihilation from hanging over the State of Israel,” he said.
Trump has since said he wants to negotiate a solution but has also reimposed his maximum pressure strategy of strict sanctions on Iran, which in return has said it wants to reach a diplomatic solution.
On Monday, Trump expressed his confidence that a deal can be reached with Iran to curb its nuclear program and prevent it from producing a bomb.
“I think we’re gonna make a deal in Iran,” he told Fox News. “I think they’re scared. I think Iran would love to make a deal and I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them.
“Everyone thinks Israel, with our help or our approval, will go in and bomb the hell out of ’em. I would prefer that not happen,” he told the cable network.