



If former prime minister Naftali Bennett makes a political comeback, his party would be the largest in the Knesset and would have multiple options for forming a majority coalition, according to a poll released by Channel 12 News on Thursday.
The poll examined a range of possibilities, including an election with the current parties, an election with Bennett at the head of a new party and also Bennett running on a joint list with Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu.
In all three scenarios, the current coalition government fails to retain its 64-mandate majority in the 120 seat Knesset.
Without Bennett, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and Benny Gantz’s National Unity parties would tie with 22 seats each followed by opposition leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid at 15.
Yisrael Beytenu would be fourth with 14 seats, more than doubling its current six.
The joint Labor and Meretz list, the Democrats, would win 11 seats, Shas would win 10, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism would win eight each, and Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would win five each.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, the Arab party Balad, and Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope wouldn’t cross the threshold.
In this case, the current coalition would only earn 48 seats, while the parties in the previous government would win 67. Hadash-Ta’al make up the other five.
If Bennett were to run in the next election, his party would become the largest in the Knesset, winning 21 seats. However, he would draw most of his support from other opposition parties.
In this scenario, Likud would win 19 seats and Gantz’s National Unity’s would get 13. Yesh Atid would also lose seats, only gaining 11, and Yisrael Beytenu would win 10.
Otzma Yehudit would win seven seats and the rest of the parties would remain unchanged from the scenario without Bennett.
With Bennett in the race, the coalition would drop to 44 and the opposition, without Hadash-Ta’al would win 71 seats.
In the event that Bennett and Liberman were to unite, they would win 26 seats together with the Likud winning 20, National Unity winning 15, and Yesh Atid gaining 12.
Channel 12 analysts noted that Bennett and Liberman would win more seats running separately and said the poll could put an end to talks of them running on a joint list.
The poll also did not examine who would join Bennett in his new party, with the analysts noting that several of the politicians who Bennett picked to be in his previous Yamina party had jumped ship and helped bring down his government.
In the scenario of a joint Bennett-Liberman run, Otzma Yehudit would get eight seats and the rest of the parties would remain unchanged from the other two scenarios.
In this case, the current opposition would be weaker than if Bennett ran alone with 69 seats to the coalition’s 46.
Respondents also considered Bennett to be the best-suited candidate for prime minister, preferring him over Netanyahu, Gantz, and Lapid.
When faced against Lapid, 35% preferred Netanyahu, and 27% said Lapid with the rest saying neither was the right pick. Gantz was also considered less suitable than Netanyahu with 30% picking the former and 32% choosing the current prime minister. The remaining 33% said neither was right.
Bennett, however, had the highest approval rating at 39% compared to 31% for Netanyahu with the remaining 25% voting for neither.
Israelis vote for parties and do not pick the prime minister directly.
The pro-Netanyahu bloc defeated the Bennett-helmed government in elections in November 2022, winning 64 seats. General elections are not due in Israel until October 2026.
Channel 12 did not provide information on how the poll was conducted or provide a margin of error.