Moldova’s ruling pro-European Union party pulled comfortably ahead of its Russian-leaning rival in a crucial parliamentary election as final results trickled in on Monday, a relief for the government as it seeks to keep the country out of Moscow’s orbit.

With around 95 percent of votes counted, the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) had 48.3% versus 25.5% for the Patriotic Bloc, which opposes closer ties with Brussels.

While still short of a majority in the 101-seat chamber, the preliminary count gets PAS closer to the threshold than many political analysts had expected and could make coalition-building less fraught than feared.

And with more ballots to come in from overseas voters, who tend to favor integration with Europe, it remains possible PAS will get over 50% in the final tally.

“Statistically speaking PAS has guaranteed a fragile majority,” analyst Andrei Curararu of the Chisinau-based think tank WatchDog.md told AFP.

But he warned that “the danger is not surpassed, as a functional government is difficult to form. The Kremlin has bankrolled too big of an operation to stand down and could resort to protests, bribing PAS MPs and other tactics to disrupt forming a stable pro-European government.”

PAS gained 52.8% in the 2021 elections. Turnout this year stood at around 52%, similar to that of 2021.

Holding on to its parliamentary majority would allow the party to keep Moldova’s EU bid on track, a process requiring years of concerted legislative efforts.

The buildup to what PAS leaders have called the most consequential election in Moldova since independence was marred by accusations of foul play by both sides up to and on the day of polling.

President Maia Sandu’s government warned Moldovans that Russia had attempted to sway the vote through widespread disinformation and vote-buying.

Stanislav Secrieru, Sandu’s national security adviser, said election infrastructure and government websites had come under cyberattack, and that fake bomb threats were called into polling stations in Moldova and abroad.

Moldova’s cybersecurity service said Sunday that the attacks it detected were “neutralized in real time… without affecting the availability or integrity of electoral services.”

In the days leading up to the vote, election officials barred two pro-Russian parties from the ballot amid allegations of illegal financing.

Moscow has denied meddling in Moldova.

On Sunday, Patriotic Bloc co-leader Igor Dodon, a former Moldovan president, called for protests in front of parliament on Monday, claiming that Sandu was planning to annul the vote. He did not provide evidence.

“If during the night there are falsifications, tomorrow we won’t recognize [the result of] the parliamentary elections… and we will ask for elections to be repeated,” he said late Sunday outside the electoral commission, where he went with some supporters.

Authorities will watch closely to see if Dodon follows through on the threat, and what crowds he can command if he does.

Authorities late on Sunday had warned of attempts to stir unrest following the vote, part of a campaign that they blamed on Russian-backed efforts to disrupt the election if it did not go in the bloc’s favour.

Moldova — a former Soviet republic of 2.4 million people that is one of Europe’s poorest countries and has been buffeted by the war in neighbouring Ukraine, alleged Russian interference and energy shortages — has long vacillated between Russia and Europe. It has a pro-Russia breakaway region.

Opposition groups like the Patriotic Bloc had sought to tap into voter anger over economic pain and the slow pace of reforms, grievances worsened by what officials say has been widespread disinformation.

Inflation remains stubbornly high at around 7%, while Moldovans also shoulder higher costs for imported energy.

But the stronger-than-expected electoral performance by PAS suggests its platform of European integration and breaking with Russia still resonates among wide swaths of voters.

A near-full, preliminary count is usually known in the early hours of the following morning after the closure of polls on Sunday evening. Votes from expatriate Moldovans can take another day to come in.