France is weighing whether to recognize a Palestinian state, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s attendance at a UN conference next week aimed at promoting a two-state solution will signal if Paris will go ahead with the pivotal move, four diplomats familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel on Wednesday.

While Saudi Arabia is co-sponsoring the UN confab along with France, Riyadh has yet to publicly announce whether bin Salman will attend along with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Two Arab diplomats and two Western diplomats told The Times of Israel that the crown prince — known by his initials MBS — is unlikely to attend the conference unless it includes a major deliverable seen to advance a two-state solution.

A French decision to become the most prominent Western country to recognize a Palestinian state would be more than enough to warrant MBS’s presence in New York, the diplomats said.

“He will attend if France decides to recognize Palestine,” one of the Arab diplomats said.

Macron has publicly expressed his desire to make such an announcement, but he is facing pressure from the Trump administration, which opposes the unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state and argues that it would harm Washington’s efforts to secure a hostage deal in Gaza. That argument was also used by the Biden administration to oppose such efforts last year.

There is also concern whether the move will provoke punitive steps by Israel to collapse the Palestinian Authority or formally annex parts of the West Bank.

Some opponents of the move also warn that it will prove to be merely symbolic, as other unilateral recognitions have been, if not coupled with a broader diplomatic initiative with which Israel is willing to cooperate.

For its part, Israel has asserted that unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state would amount to a “reward” to Hamas for its October 7, 2023, attack that started the ongoing Gaza war.

Supporters of the move maintain that joint international recognition of Israel and a Palestinian state helps actualize a two-state solution — which Hamas opposes — and that waiting for the perfect conditions while maintaining the status quo on the ground helped create the conditions that allowed the October 7 onslaught to unfold.

A spokesperson for France’s Mission declined a request to comment, but a Western diplomat said the chances of Paris recognizing a Palestinian state were boosted by a letter that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas sent earlier this week.

The letter saw Abbas stake out a series of positions that fall in line with those of France and Saudi Arabia, including the PA’s readiness to assume governing responsibilities for Gaza; a call for Hamas to step down and hand over its weapons to the PA; an invitation to Arab and international forces to deploy in Gaza in order to stabilize the security situation in the Strip; a commitment to continue reforming the PA, including by holding elections within a year; and backing for a peace agreement with Israel that creates a demilitarized Palestinian state.

Abbas himself has not confirmed whether or not he will attend, though a source familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel that he is planning to do so and give a speech similar to what he expressed in his letter to Macron and bin Salman.

An Arab diplomat said MBS has directed his aides to prepare for him to attend the UN conference, even though he has not made a final decision.

MBS’s attendance — and the French recognition it would signal — would likely draw additional world leaders to attend the conference, with the Arab diplomat expressing hope that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer would be among them.

“France would like the UK to join it in recognizing a Palestinian state,” a second Western diplomat said.

Starmer is scheduled to already be on the Western hemisphere next week for the G7 in Canada, which ends Tuesday, the same day that the four-day UN conference is slated to commence. The Saudi crown prince has also been invited to attend the G7 summit, giving him a shorter commute to New York as well.

For its part, Paris did not join London in sanctioning far-right Israeli ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich on Tuesday.

Smotrich responded to the move by the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Norway by directing his office to waive the indemnity that Israeli banks have been given to correspond with Palestinian banks, in a move that risks paralyzing the Palestinian economy if implemented.

A source involved in France’s deliberations argued that if Israel is moving to collapse the PA even before Paris has made a decision, there is less of a justification to hold off on recognizing a Palestinian state.

Saudi Arabia’s Embassy in Washington and the UK’s Mission to the UN did not respond to requests for comment.