Israeli officials increasingly believe it will be Hezbollah, rather than Iran, that will be first to launch a major attack on Israel in the coming days, according to Hebrew media reports Wednesday.
Citing two sources familiar with intelligence on the matter, CNN reported that Hezbollah appears increasingly set to act against Israel “independent” of an expected Iranian response to the recent killings of the Lebanese terror group’s top military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
One of the sources said Hezbollah was moving at a faster clip than Iran in readying an attack, which it looks to launch in the coming days. According to the US news network, multiple officials said Iran seems to still be hashing out its retaliation plans, with one US military official quoted as saying Tehran has already made some — but not all — of the expected preparations for a large-scale attack against Israel.
The second source said that unlike Iran, Hezbollah can likely initiate an attack with few to no advanced signs as Lebanon border Israel. The source added that it’s unclear how or if the Islamic Republic and its Lebanese proxy are cooperating on a potential attack, and that some officials believe they may not be on the same page about how to proceed.
Meanwhile, an unsourced report by Channel 12 news said Israel has conveyed to both Hezbollah and Iran that any harm to civilians in Israel during their promised retaliation for the killing of top terror leaders will be a red line, which will lead to a disproportionate response.
Nevertheless, the report said that Israel was readying for potential attempts to attack civilian infrastructure or Israeli-linked targets abroad, but there is currently no intelligence suggesting plots against specific locations overseas.
The network also reported that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant took part in Home Front Command deliberations on Wednesday about when to issue an advance warning to Israeli citizens and update its public guidance, which did not reach a decision on a specific time due to concerns about exposing intelligence sources.
A similar report by the Kan public broadcaster said citizens will be looped in once Israel figures out an attack is underway.
On the Iranian side, a report by Iran International said President Masoud Pezeshkian implored the country’s supreme leader to avoid a direct attack on Israel, warning an escalation could lead Israel to devastate infrastructure and energy targets and cripple the economy.
The report, which cited anonymous sources with knowledge of the matter and which could not be independently confirmed, said Pezeshkian told Ali Khamenei that a war could deepen citizens’ discontent with the regime and even bring about Iran’s collapse.
The report said Khamenei was noncommittal at the meeting.
Amid the growing anticipation of an attack , Britain and Egypt asked their airlines on Wednesday avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace overs fears of a possible broader conflict in the region.
Britain’s advisory to its airlines to avoid Lebanon’s airspace came hours after Egypt instructed all of its airlines to avoid Iran’s airspace for three hours in the early morning on Thursday.
Many airlines globally are revising their schedules to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace while also calling off flights to Israel and Lebanon.
Flights through conflict zones became a prominent industry safety issue a decade ago after Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board.
Egyptian airlines have already been avoiding Iran’s airspace. The new directive applies to all Egyptian carriers, including charter operators and other smaller airlines, said Mark Zee, founder of OPSGROUP – a membership-based organization that shares flight-risk information.
Egypt’s NOTAM, a safety notice provided to pilots, said the instruction would be in effect for three hours Thursday morning.
“All Egyptian carriers shall avoid overflying Tehran (Flight Information Region). No flight plan will be accepted overflying such territory,” the notice said, referring to the three-hour period specified.
Egypt’s civil aviation ministry later confirmed on Wednesday the notice was intended to reduce flight safety risks in light of a notification it received from Iranian authorities.
“Military exercises will be conducted over Iranian airspace on August 7 from 11:30 to 14:30 and from 4:30 to 7:30 on August 8 Tehran time,” the statement said.
The ministry’s press statement followed an unnamed source quoted by the state-affiliated Al Qahera News TV as saying that Iranian authorities had said to avoid flying in the country’s airspace because of “military exercises.”
Iran’s Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani spoke with the Egyptian foreign minister by phone on Wednesday, according to Iranian foreign ministry’s website.
In 2020, Iranian air defense units said they mistakenly shot down Ukrainian International Airlines flight PS752, killing all 176 people on board, shortly after it took off from Tehran airport. At the time, they were on heightened alert because of increased tensions with the United States.
On Sunday, Jordanian authorities asked all airlines landing at its airports to carry 45 minutes’ worth of extra fuel.