After weeks of optimism around chances for a deal that would see Hamas release hostages from captivity in the Gaza Strip, talks have ground to a halt, according to multiple Israeli officials.
There are currently no Israeli working groups in either Qatar or Egypt, an Israeli defense official told The Times of Israel, and there are no plans to send one.
One week ago, the mid-level Israeli negotiating team that had been in Qatar for several days returned to Israel. The Prime Minister’s Office said it had been a “meaningful week” of talks, but there has been little sign of progress since then.
With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recovering from surgery earlier this week, the security cabinet meeting scheduled for tomorrow night has been canceled, aides to two of the ministers in the forum told The Times of Israel. A meeting slated to discuss the “day after” Hamas in Gaza will also likely be cancelled, one of the aides said.
Hamas continues to refuse to provide Israel with a list of living hostages held in Gaza, according to several Israeli officials.
The terror group says it cannot produce the list while fighting continues, and has reportedly proposed that Israel agree to a seven-day ceasefire that would allow it to put together the names of hostages that it can release in a potential deal.
During the week-long ceasefire, no hostages would be released, but Israeli troops would be allowed to remain in Gaza and those displaced would remain barred from returning to the northern part of the Strip, the Kan public broadcaster reported, acknowledging that Israel is unlikely to accept the proposal.
Israel doesn’t accept Hamas’s claim about its inability to provide the list. Officials pointed to the fact that Hamas was able to locate and film videos of specific hostages recently when it suited its purposes.
Last month, Hamas released a video of Matan Zangauker, 25, calling on the Israeli public to continue protests in support of a deal with Hamas. His mother, Einav Zangauker, is a leader of hostage families publicly pressuring Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to close a deal with Hamas.
The previous week, Hamas circulated a propaganda video showing signs of life from hostage Edan Alexander, 20, a US citizen. Israeli officials told The Times of Israel that they didn’t see the release of a video showing a US citizen as a coincidence, arguing Hamas was trying to bring additional pressure on Israel from Washington.
The stagnation in talks comes after weeks of positive signs from Israel and mediating countries. Much of the expectation for progress came from the assumption that Hezbollah giving up the fight would leave Hamas isolated; that the election of Trump would push both sides to complete a deal before returns to the White House; and that the death of October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar would allow less fanatic leaders in Hamas to make a deal.
In mid-December, Defense Minister Israel Katz reportedly told Knesset lawmakers that Israel is “closer than ever” to closing a deal. The Saudi Asharq News outlet quoted an unnamed Hamas leader as saying that the sides were “closer than ever” to reaching a deal — “if Netanyahu doesn’t obstruct it.”
An unnamed Israeli official told the Israel Hayom daily that a ceasefire-hostage deal would likely be completed by Hanukkah, which began on December 25.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan visited Israel in December to push a deal, and sounded similar notes: “I got the sense today from the prime minister he’s ready to do a deal. And when I go to Doha and Cairo, my goal will be to put us in a position to be able to close this deal this month, not later.
“There is more optimism in the air, shall we say,” added Sullivan.
“I wouldn’t be here today if I thought this thing was just waiting until after January 20,” he said.
But Arab mediators told The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday that negotiations had reached an impasse as both sides have doubled down on demands the other would not accept, and would not likely produce a deal before the end of US President Joe Biden’s term.
According to the report, Israel has insisted that only living hostages be released in the first stage of a potential deal, while Hamas has insisted that the first 30-odd hostages returned include dead bodies. It has also gone back to its demand that the deal lead to a permanent end in fighting, to which Israel refuses to commit.
On Tuesday night, President-elect Trump reiterated his warning to Hamas to release the hostages.
Israel believes that pressure from Trump could have an effect of the stalled talks. Officials hope that he will make clear to Qatar and Turkey — countries that host Hamas political leaders — that if a deal is not reached, they will pay a price.
Israel believes that 96 of the 251 hostages kidnapped by Hamas terrorists on October 7, 2023, remain in the Strip, a figure that includes the bodies of at least 34 captives confirmed dead by the IDF.
Hamas released 105 civilians during last November’s truce, and four hostages were released before that. Eight hostages have been rescued by troops alive, and the bodies of 38 hostages have been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the Israeli military as they tried to escape their captors.
Hamas is also holding two Israeli civilians who entered the Strip in 2014 and 2015, as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers who were killed in 2014.