Recent events suggest that Ukraine is fighting a deniable shadow war on Russian territory. It’s true: and in fact this war began almost as soon as Russia invaded Ukraine.

Reporting in Russia is subject to state control, but it’s difficult to keep people from noticing events such as large fires and explosions.

Within weeks of Russian troops crossing into Ukraine, such fires were raging and things were exploding on the Russian side of the border.

As early as April 2022, Ukrainian officials were denying that Kyiv was responsible for a fuel depot blaze near Belgorod, and suggesting that Russian separatists seeking to establish a “People’s Republic of Belgorod” might have started the conflagration.

Later that month the Russian border provinces of Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh all raised their terror alert status. 

Explosions, fires and power cuts began to ravage the border region.

As the summer arrived, Russia gave up on its disastrous attempts to take Kyiv and Kharkiv, and pulled its troops back onto its own territory all along the northern border. The defeated Russian forces mostly redeployed to the south to reinforce the invasion there.