There was a window, early in the full-scale invasion, when the oligarchs around Vladimir Putin - the money men, the ones who control the assets and therefore to a very large extent the economy of Russia - could have grouped together to unseat him. 

However, either through fear or incompetence, the oligarchs missed their chance. Those who wanted to get out of Russia, did, and fast. Those that remained were soon sanctioned, and even if sanctions are a medium-to-long term game in economic terms, they can have an immediate effect on Mrs Novichokski’s plans for Wimbledon.

So, no palace coup from the old guard anytime soon; ditto the military, who can be bought off with the occasional pay rise. And don’t expect an outbreak of revolutionary zeal from the docile and ageing society that can be palmed off with tales of Uncle Joe (see: Stalin) and the occasional hike in social security. 

But what of the young bucks?

Young Russians vote with their feet

Putin has to keep one eye, and preferably a heavy lid, on the younger generation: the adaptable, optimistic, adventurous and entrepreneurial digital natives that truly are Generation Z.  

Unable to vote with their hands they voted with their feet. When Moscow announced the partial mobilisation last year, an estimated one million people fled the country, mostly the young men who would otherwise now be running towards Ukrainian machine guns in Avdiivka. 

Had it not been for the international reaction to Putin’s stupidity, these people could have been working abroad, sucking up global best practice, innovative ideas and technological developments to power Russia through the 21st century. Instead, they’ve taken their capital - human and financial - and invested in places like Uzbekistan and Georgia, locations they can still escape to. 

All of which means Russia’s future economic outlook is not looking so rosy. But that’s a problem for tomorrow isn’t it, surely today’s fine?

Well, cracks are starting to show. Take Russia’s oil fields. Companies like Exxon and Chevron have gone, others too. Some energy companies are dragging their feet when it comes to ending their activities in Russia, but they’re not expanding. The lack of investment, in maintenance as much as ideas, is impacting the efficiency and profitability of the sector.

What about the labour market? 

Here too there’s been a massive crunch with businesses complaining about a shortage of workers for months. Central Asian migrants, a traditional labour route, have been encouraged to move to Russia but many are now being put off by the risk of being forced into military service.

A system struggling to cope

Putin, of course, doesn’t care how many people die for his cause at the front. But he will care when those bodies either aren’t replaced with new soldiers or when the effect of those additional people “choosing” to be in Ukraine, is felt by them not working or spending at home. The babushkas are still there, but the economically active are increasingly to be found in a soggy trench in the Donbas.  

This all feeds inflation and weakens the rouble. Signs of the system struggling to cope are there if you know where to look. A shopping mall in Izhevsk has been converted into a weapons factory; bakers are quitting bread production because they’ve been told to make drones; office workers are asked to “volunteer” to work in munitions factories after work. AvtoVaz, a carmarker, and Ozen, Russia’s Amazon, are employing prisoners.

It all adds up to domestic trouble.

In this episode of Defence in Depth, Dominic Nicholls, The Telegraph’s associate editor, explains how Putin’s decisions around the war in Ukraine will bring down the house of cards that is his regime - and why Russia may collapse alongside him.

Watch Dominic’s video analysis above. Find more episodes of Defence in Depth on The Telegraph’s YouTube channel.