There is no doubt that the outcome of the first round of voting in France’s general election is a huge slap in the face for Emmanuel Macron.

The French president’s party is languishing in third place and his political gamble – to call a snap vote after being trounced in European elections – now appears a misguided act of pique.

Sunday night was also a major victory for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), which clearly came first in terms of votes, at around 33-34 per cent, an all-time record.

However, round two of this lightning contest – on July 7 – is still far from an electoral slam dunk for the hard Right.

First, the Left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance – a mix of hard-Leftists, Socialists, Greens and Communists – fared strongly on Sunday, approaching 30 per cent, while Mr Macron’s Together coalition was way back in third place, on around 20 per cent.

And while some pollsters forecast that an absolute majority of 289 seats is now within the RN’s grasp, such predictions appear hazardous at best, for one reason.

Historically most second-round run-offs in French parliamentary elections are between two finalists, namely any candidate who gains more than 12.5 per cent of the registered vote.

But for the first time in French parliamentary electoral history, there could be as many as 320 “triangular” three-way run-offs in round two.

What will now follow is a complex game of horse-trading and tactical voting.

The situation is relatively simple for the RN, whose only allies are renegade members of the conservative Republicans party who broke ranks with most of the movement to forge an alliance with the Le Pen camp.

But the question for all other parties is: who is prepared to step down for whom?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon – volcanic leader of France Unbowed (LFI), part of the Left-wing alliance – announced that his candidates would systematically stand aside if they placed third in round one, and call on voters to back any candidate against RN.

However, it was unclear whether Mr Mélenchon – a prime ministerial hopeful who is despised by most of his alliance partners – spoke only for his party or the entire Popular Front alliance of which it is a member.

Next up was Edouard Philippe, a Right-wing former prime minister and part of Mr Macron’s Together alliance, who has made it plain he wants to run for president in 2027. Mr Philippe refused to be so categorical, calling on voters to block both RN and Mr Mélenchon’s LFI.

In other words, he made a distinction between the Mélenchon “extremists” and the rest of the Left-wing alliance, which has divvied up constituencies across the country.

For his part, Mr Macron was far hazier, merely saying he hoped to forge “a large, clearly democratic and republican rally for the second round”.

When pressed, those of his ministers who took to the airwaves following the result said this meant the party would stand aside if in third place in round two, on a case-by-case basis.

He may be on the ropes, but Mr Macron clearly still hopes that the French will – in his view – come to their senses and vote for centre-ground candidates whenever possible. 

That would leave him the small but not impossible prospect of forging a coalition within parliament to keep out both the NR and the hard Left.

As France has found out to its dismay, this president is fond of gambling with the country’s future.

This latest bet may have the longest odds of all – and end in him being a lame duck for the next three years.