Military planning can be a tough job. You spend a lot of time preparing for conflicts that many do not consider likely or certainly don’t want to discuss openly. Harder still, you are asked to plan for a ceasefire whilst the conflict still rages on, with enough moving parts to render predictions nearly impossible. While you scratch your head trying to match scarce resources to unknown political intent, your chums next door in Operations are involved in actually fighting the war and wondering what you’re up to.

These processes are underway now in the Ukraine-Russia war. Whilst Army planners are working hard just now to construct a plan for troop deployments that might actually be sustainable and yet may never happen, Navy planners are working equally hard to determine what the Black Sea might look like post ceasefire and what we can contribute to it. This discussion has not reached the press yet but it should, because it’s complex and important. 

There are two macro points to consider here. First is maintaining maritime trade sufficient to support Ukraine’s economy and those who are dependent on that trade. “Africa” and “grain” often steal the headlines here. The flow of grain to the world’s markets was originally cut off successfully by Russia with ports like Odesa, Chornomorsk and Ovdennyi effectively shut down for the first five months of the invasion. Alternatives routes by rail, road and river were used but as followers of international shipping will understand, these were not an effective substitute.