With the peace negotiations poised to re-start, Russia launched a massive drone and missile strike against Ukraine this weekend. This capped a week that has seen continuous attacks against civilian targets. The Kremlin insists, of course, that Russia is attacking military targets, but even the most cynical Russian supporters would choke on the idea that every hospital and school in Ukraine is full of tanks and missiles. Even President Trump seems to have eventually concluded that Putin is taking him for a fool, after his vitriolic outburst on Sunday against the Russian leader.
On Sunday the US president ranted that he “does not like” what Putin is doing, and called him “absolutely crazy”. To add fuel to the fire, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested in response that Trump was suffering from “emotional overload”, and Russian newspapers are leading with the story that the US government is sanctioning Europe with high tariffs but not Russia.
The Russian papers may be full of anti-Ukraine and European rhetoric, but they are also full of the perilous state of the Russian economy. Everything except tank production is in free-fall downwards – and tank production is still nowhere near enough to match the grievous losses of the war. If Saudi and US threats to drive oil prices below $50 a barrel are realised, the Russian war machine is likely to grind to a halt by this year’s end.
Worryingly, there is also widespread assertion in the Russian media that “legally” the Soviet Union still exists, and the Special Military Operation in Ukraine is an internal matter. According to this logic that would also be the case if Russia invaded the Baltic States and Poland – as those countries expect, which is why they are building up their forces as fast as possible.
But, finally, President Trump seems to have realised that the Russians think he is an idiot. They are now openly goading him and the penny has finally dropped. The US president has belatedly realised that the “bad guys” are in Moscow and not in Kyiv and other European capitals. The big mistake Moscow has now made was to neglect Trump’s vanity. This is an error that Vladimir Putin may live to regret. Trump, in his anger at the obvious Russian disrespect, may now push the sanctions button and deprive Moscow of the vital oil revenue which allows it to sustain its massive army and creaking economy.
Frankly, I hope – and most outside the Kremlin are probably hoping with me – that Donald Trump is now as mad as hell, and will put the boot into Russia where it hurts the most. That’s the best chance of ending the war, rather than trying to negotiate with Putin.
With the peace negotiations poised to re-start, Russia launched a massive drone and missile strike against Ukraine this weekend. This capped a week that has seen continuous attacks against civilian targets. The Kremlin insists, of course, that Russia is attacking military targets, but even the most cynical Russian supporters would choke on the idea that every hospital and school in Ukraine is full of tanks and missiles. Even President Trump seems to have eventually concluded that Putin is taking him for a fool, after his vitriolic outburst on Sunday against the Russian leader.
On Sunday the US president ranted that he “does not like” what Putin is doing, and called him “absolutely crazy”. To add fuel to the fire, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested in response that Trump was suffering from “emotional overload”, and Russian newspapers are leading with the story that the US government is sanctioning Europe with high tariffs but not Russia.
The Russian papers may be full of anti-Ukraine and European rhetoric, but they are also full of the perilous state of the Russian economy. Everything except tank production is in free-fall downwards – and tank production is still nowhere near enough to match the grievous losses of the war. If Saudi and US threats to drive oil prices below $50 a barrel are realised, the Russian war machine is likely to grind to a halt by this year’s end.
Worryingly, there is also widespread assertion in the Russian media that “legally” the Soviet Union still exists, and the Special Military Operation in Ukraine is an internal matter. According to this logic that would also be the case if Russia invaded the Baltic States and Poland – as those countries expect, which is why they are building up their forces as fast as possible.
But, finally, President Trump seems to have realised that the Russians think he is an idiot. They are now openly goading him and the penny has finally dropped. The US president has belatedly realised that the “bad guys” are in Moscow and not in Kyiv and other European capitals. The big mistake Moscow has now made was to neglect Trump’s vanity. This is an error that Vladimir Putin may live to regret. Trump, in his anger at the obvious Russian disrespect, may now push the sanctions button and deprive Moscow of the vital oil revenue which allows it to sustain its massive army and creaking economy.
Frankly, I hope – and most outside the Kremlin are probably hoping with me – that Donald Trump is now as mad as hell, and will put the boot into Russia where it hurts the most. That’s the best chance of ending the war, rather than trying to negotiate with Putin.