Sir Keir Starmer rightly says that Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted, and therefore the US needs to provide a security guarantee for any peace deal. What could that security guarantee be? America and Europe have been sending weapons to Ukraine for 10 years, even more so since 2022, and that hasn’t deterred or stopped Russia. It has slowed up Putin’s army and inflicted heavy casualties, but three years on from the full-scale invasion, Russia is still advancing inside Ukraine. Had significantly more munitions been supplied much earlier in the war then the picture today might be different. But that won’t happen now, not even with Starmer’s promised 5,000 air defence missiles. Nor did economic sanctions achieve very much given Western fears of excessive self-harm plus continued unrestrained Russian trade with many countries including China, India and Turkey.
President Zelensky’s number one security guarantee would be membership of Nato but that is off the table. Nor is there any prospect of any country threatening military action in response to Russia breaching a peace deal or launching any further aggression.
Starmer’s and French President Macron’s idea of a security guarantee is sending a European coalition of the willing into Ukraine to “defend” a ceasefire. That could only happen with the consent of Russia. But Foreign Minister Lavrov has repeatedly said that will not be allowed and any Nato forces on the ground in Ukraine will be regarded as combatants and attacked. It doesn’t matter what flag they might fly, they would be seen in the same light. Indeed allowing peacekeepers in would make no sense from the Russian perspective given that Putin’s most oft-repeated excuse for invading Ukraine is the alleged encroachment of Nato towards Russian soil.
Sir Keir Starmer rightly says that Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted, and therefore the US needs to provide a security guarantee for any peace deal. What could that security guarantee be? America and Europe have been sending weapons to Ukraine for 10 years, even more so since 2022, and that hasn’t deterred or stopped Russia. It has slowed up Putin’s army and inflicted heavy casualties, but three years on from the full-scale invasion, Russia is still advancing inside Ukraine. Had significantly more munitions been supplied much earlier in the war then the picture today might be different. But that won’t happen now, not even with Starmer’s promised 5,000 air defence missiles. Nor did economic sanctions achieve very much given Western fears of excessive self-harm plus continued unrestrained Russian trade with many countries including China, India and Turkey.
President Zelensky’s number one security guarantee would be membership of Nato but that is off the table. Nor is there any prospect of any country threatening military action in response to Russia breaching a peace deal or launching any further aggression.
Starmer’s and French President Macron’s idea of a security guarantee is sending a European coalition of the willing into Ukraine to “defend” a ceasefire. That could only happen with the consent of Russia. But Foreign Minister Lavrov has repeatedly said that will not be allowed and any Nato forces on the ground in Ukraine will be regarded as combatants and attacked. It doesn’t matter what flag they might fly, they would be seen in the same light. Indeed allowing peacekeepers in would make no sense from the Russian perspective given that Putin’s most oft-repeated excuse for invading Ukraine is the alleged encroachment of Nato towards Russian soil.