President Trump will get a nasty surprise next time he tries to bully Volodymyr Zelensky. He will threaten to cut off the intelligence – but he can’t. We live in a different world now where the proliferation of precision and accessibility of data means the state and the traditional large defence primes are being outmanoeuvred at every turn. The Ukrainian armed forces have shown that the West’s choice to invest in exquisite platforms that cost billions was wrong.
We were so convinced our enemies cared about casualty figures the way we did that we presumed that attrition was not going to be a major barrier and everything would be over in a few weeks. Our ammo stocks were the real giveaway. Nato countries were buying Formula One cars that they couldn’t afford to maintain, let alone lose. Only the US with its trillion-dollar budget could afford such purchases and even the Americans are now having a strategic rethink.
If you are a fan, as I am, of Formula One, you will know that the car can’t even start itself without a team of highly skilled engineers and that after about 1200 miles it must be completely rebuilt. Such machinery is great for a race of 60 laps, but lousy for a prolonged war of attrition. In the effort “to keep up with the Joneses” across the Atlantic we stopped focusing on outcomes and became obsessed with structure.
What Ukraine has shown is the new way of warfare. They are the teachers now. When a surface drone that costs $80,000 can sink a Russian warship or shoot down jets and helicopters hundreds of kilometres out to sea then we must not shy away from the consequences.
The new, simple platforms are incredibly lethal because of the data they feed on. Data is the new oil. There are now AI, satellite and even advertising companies who have data for sale. The one thing all these companies have in common is that they are not the state. They are private companies and many of them are vital to the new ways of warfare and intelligence. Not that long ago spy satellites and data mining were the preserve of governments. Then along came Google Earth. Suddenly nothing was secret.
The commercial satellites do more than observe. Elon Musk’s Starlink isn’t NASA: it’s for hire. The commercial world now has data, AI and collection assets to rival any state. With the right knowledge and expertise individual capabilities can be woven together to create a formidable intelligence, surveillance and targeting regime. You can literally buy, off the shelf, an intelligence agency – as long as you know where to go shopping.
In March Mr Trump claimed he switched off US intelligence sharing as a way bullying Zelensky to the table. His bold statements, while causing short term harm, also exposed his ignorance of modern warfare. Supportive allies and companies soon stepped into the gap. If Tesco can switch suppliers in a matter of hours so too can armies. General Sir Nick Carter used to say when he was Chief of Defence staff that the modern battlefield is about hiding and finding. Ukraine’s challenge isn’t finding Russians; it is having enough shells, drones, missiles and “effects” to deal with them. And I believe that Europe and the UK can provide that if the US won’t.
Ukraine will teach us all a lesson, but I wonder if it is a lesson our military leaders and politicians are prepared to act on.
Rt Hon Ben Wallace was Defence Secretary from 2019 - 2023
President Trump will get a nasty surprise next time he tries to bully Volodymyr Zelensky. He will threaten to cut off the intelligence – but he can’t. We live in a different world now where the proliferation of precision and accessibility of data means the state and the traditional large defence primes are being outmanoeuvred at every turn. The Ukrainian armed forces have shown that the West’s choice to invest in exquisite platforms that cost billions was wrong.
We were so convinced our enemies cared about casualty figures the way we did that we presumed that attrition was not going to be a major barrier and everything would be over in a few weeks. Our ammo stocks were the real giveaway. Nato countries were buying Formula One cars that they couldn’t afford to maintain, let alone lose. Only the US with its trillion-dollar budget could afford such purchases and even the Americans are now having a strategic rethink.
If you are a fan, as I am, of Formula One, you will know that the car can’t even start itself without a team of highly skilled engineers and that after about 1200 miles it must be completely rebuilt. Such machinery is great for a race of 60 laps, but lousy for a prolonged war of attrition. In the effort “to keep up with the Joneses” across the Atlantic we stopped focusing on outcomes and became obsessed with structure.
What Ukraine has shown is the new way of warfare. They are the teachers now. When a surface drone that costs $80,000 can sink a Russian warship or shoot down jets and helicopters hundreds of kilometres out to sea then we must not shy away from the consequences.
The new, simple platforms are incredibly lethal because of the data they feed on. Data is the new oil. There are now AI, satellite and even advertising companies who have data for sale. The one thing all these companies have in common is that they are not the state. They are private companies and many of them are vital to the new ways of warfare and intelligence. Not that long ago spy satellites and data mining were the preserve of governments. Then along came Google Earth. Suddenly nothing was secret.
The commercial satellites do more than observe. Elon Musk’s Starlink isn’t NASA: it’s for hire. The commercial world now has data, AI and collection assets to rival any state. With the right knowledge and expertise individual capabilities can be woven together to create a formidable intelligence, surveillance and targeting regime. You can literally buy, off the shelf, an intelligence agency – as long as you know where to go shopping.
In March Mr Trump claimed he switched off US intelligence sharing as a way bullying Zelensky to the table. His bold statements, while causing short term harm, also exposed his ignorance of modern warfare. Supportive allies and companies soon stepped into the gap. If Tesco can switch suppliers in a matter of hours so too can armies. General Sir Nick Carter used to say when he was Chief of Defence staff that the modern battlefield is about hiding and finding. Ukraine’s challenge isn’t finding Russians; it is having enough shells, drones, missiles and “effects” to deal with them. And I believe that Europe and the UK can provide that if the US won’t.
Ukraine will teach us all a lesson, but I wonder if it is a lesson our military leaders and politicians are prepared to act on.
Rt Hon Ben Wallace was Defence Secretary from 2019 - 2023