Donald Trump’s peace agenda in Ukraine is on the verge of unravelling. After a few weeks of relative calm, Russia fired 574 drones and 40 missiles at Ukraine. These attacks resulted in one reported fatality in Lviv and injuries to fifteen others in Zakarpattia.
Caustic rhetoric from Ukrainian and Russian officials adds to this gloomy atmosphere. Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of thwarting a bilateral meeting between himself and Vladimir Putin on ending the war.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, fumed that the agenda for a peace summit is “not ready at all” and accused Mr Zelensky of saying “no to everything.” In response to these statements, Mr Trump conceded that Mr Zelensky and Putin mix like “oil and vinegar” and are unable to get along.
Even the location of the summit has become a subject of intense conflict. Ukraine automatically rejected Putin’s proposal that Mr Zelensky meet him in Moscow. Ukraine is also sceptical about the White House’s recommendation of Budapest as a mediation venue, while Geneva and Istanbul remain plausible contenders.
Once this impasse is broken, Mr Trump needs to square the circle between his support for European security guarantees for Ukraine and Russia’s adamant opposition to Nato peacekeepers on its borders.
As the prospects for a swift peace settlement recede, the battlefield situation for Ukraine has become increasingly problematic. Earlier this month, Russia claimed victory after a 16-month-long campaign in Chasiv Yar. Moscow’s forces have continued their inch-by-inch march on the eastern Ukrainian battleground of Pokrovsk and intensified their offensive efforts in northern Donetsk.
While Europe’s decision to purchase US military technology for Ukraine has provided a quick fix on the war materiel side of things, Kyiv has two severe areas of weakness. The first is its acute manpower shortages. Although US army general Christopher Cavoli argued in April that Ukraine’s manpower crisis had eased, Mr Zelensky’s policy initiatives point to a persistent problem.
On July 29, the Ukrainian president signed a law allowing Ukrainian men over age 60 to serve in non-combat and specialised roles. Via the Contract 18-24 program, Ukraine is also offering financial incentives to young men to join the frontlines.
Despite these measures, key areas of the Donetsk frontline remain understaffed. Former Azov brigade commander Bohdan Krotevych recently bemoaned the participation of “drivers, artillerymen and cooks” in key military positions.
Meanwhile Oleksandr Syrsky, the Ukrainian armed forces chief, conceded that small Russian infantry units are engaged in “total infiltration” of the Donetsk frontlines. As Russia can readily find new recruits to mask its staggering casualties, time is not on Ukraine’s side.
The second is growing internal discord within Ukraine’s command structure. This is not a new phenomenon. Former commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny’s preference for a tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut clashed with Mr Zelensky’s hold-at-all costs approach in the spring of 2023.
This disagreement hastened Mr Zaluzhny’s dismissal in February 2024 and Mr Syrsky’s takeover.
While Mr Syrsky has avoided a major political confrontation with his president, morale on the frontlines has continued to plummet. While Ukrainian battalion commanders intend to rotate troops every three-to-four-days, the incessant stream of Russian drone attacks has caused some troops to contend with twenty-day shifts.
According to a September 2024 CNN report, 19,000 desertion-related criminal cases were opened in Ukraine during the first four months of 2024. While the pace of indictments has slowed, it is most likely due to Ukrainian commanders trying to cajole troops into returning to service instead of punishing them with potential prison sentences.
Due to these structural weaknesses in the Ukrainian army, Russia sees benefits in its time-buying tactics. Colonel Dmytro Palisa, the commander of Ukraine’s 33rd Mechanized Brigade, says that Putin is trying to seize as much of Donetsk as possible and has no regard for casualties. Russia’s efforts to stretch the frontlines to as far west as Mukachevo, where a US electronics company was targeted this morning, illustrate its desire to stretch Ukraine’s resources as thin as possible.
Despite Russia’s scorched-earth tactics, there is still a silver lining for Ukraine’s beleaguered forces. Over the past 48 hours, Ukrainian forces have shown signs of stemming the Russian advance around the Donetsk battleground of Dobropillia.
The Institute of the Study of War concluded that Russia wants Ukraine to unilaterally withdraw from Donetsk because it cannot capture the rest of the region through military means. Further manpower losses and war materiel shortages could yet eviscerate these few positives for Ukraine.
Trump’s peace plan is showing signs of faltering. For Russia, this buys valuable time. For Ukraine, it could be catastrophic.
Donald Trump’s peace agenda in Ukraine is on the verge of unravelling. After a few weeks of relative calm, Russia fired 574 drones and 40 missiles at Ukraine. These attacks resulted in one reported fatality in Lviv and injuries to fifteen others in Zakarpattia.
Caustic rhetoric from Ukrainian and Russian officials adds to this gloomy atmosphere. Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of thwarting a bilateral meeting between himself and Vladimir Putin on ending the war.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, fumed that the agenda for a peace summit is “not ready at all” and accused Mr Zelensky of saying “no to everything.” In response to these statements, Mr Trump conceded that Mr Zelensky and Putin mix like “oil and vinegar” and are unable to get along.
Even the location of the summit has become a subject of intense conflict. Ukraine automatically rejected Putin’s proposal that Mr Zelensky meet him in Moscow. Ukraine is also sceptical about the White House’s recommendation of Budapest as a mediation venue, while Geneva and Istanbul remain plausible contenders.
Once this impasse is broken, Mr Trump needs to square the circle between his support for European security guarantees for Ukraine and Russia’s adamant opposition to Nato peacekeepers on its borders.
As the prospects for a swift peace settlement recede, the battlefield situation for Ukraine has become increasingly problematic. Earlier this month, Russia claimed victory after a 16-month-long campaign in Chasiv Yar. Moscow’s forces have continued their inch-by-inch march on the eastern Ukrainian battleground of Pokrovsk and intensified their offensive efforts in northern Donetsk.
While Europe’s decision to purchase US military technology for Ukraine has provided a quick fix on the war materiel side of things, Kyiv has two severe areas of weakness. The first is its acute manpower shortages. Although US army general Christopher Cavoli argued in April that Ukraine’s manpower crisis had eased, Mr Zelensky’s policy initiatives point to a persistent problem.
On July 29, the Ukrainian president signed a law allowing Ukrainian men over age 60 to serve in non-combat and specialised roles. Via the Contract 18-24 program, Ukraine is also offering financial incentives to young men to join the frontlines.
Despite these measures, key areas of the Donetsk frontline remain understaffed. Former Azov brigade commander Bohdan Krotevych recently bemoaned the participation of “drivers, artillerymen and cooks” in key military positions.
Meanwhile Oleksandr Syrsky, the Ukrainian armed forces chief, conceded that small Russian infantry units are engaged in “total infiltration” of the Donetsk frontlines. As Russia can readily find new recruits to mask its staggering casualties, time is not on Ukraine’s side.
The second is growing internal discord within Ukraine’s command structure. This is not a new phenomenon. Former commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny’s preference for a tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut clashed with Mr Zelensky’s hold-at-all costs approach in the spring of 2023.
This disagreement hastened Mr Zaluzhny’s dismissal in February 2024 and Mr Syrsky’s takeover.
While Mr Syrsky has avoided a major political confrontation with his president, morale on the frontlines has continued to plummet. While Ukrainian battalion commanders intend to rotate troops every three-to-four-days, the incessant stream of Russian drone attacks has caused some troops to contend with twenty-day shifts.
According to a September 2024 CNN report, 19,000 desertion-related criminal cases were opened in Ukraine during the first four months of 2024. While the pace of indictments has slowed, it is most likely due to Ukrainian commanders trying to cajole troops into returning to service instead of punishing them with potential prison sentences.
Due to these structural weaknesses in the Ukrainian army, Russia sees benefits in its time-buying tactics. Colonel Dmytro Palisa, the commander of Ukraine’s 33rd Mechanized Brigade, says that Putin is trying to seize as much of Donetsk as possible and has no regard for casualties. Russia’s efforts to stretch the frontlines to as far west as Mukachevo, where a US electronics company was targeted this morning, illustrate its desire to stretch Ukraine’s resources as thin as possible.
Despite Russia’s scorched-earth tactics, there is still a silver lining for Ukraine’s beleaguered forces. Over the past 48 hours, Ukrainian forces have shown signs of stemming the Russian advance around the Donetsk battleground of Dobropillia.
The Institute of the Study of War concluded that Russia wants Ukraine to unilaterally withdraw from Donetsk because it cannot capture the rest of the region through military means. Further manpower losses and war materiel shortages could yet eviscerate these few positives for Ukraine.
Trump’s peace plan is showing signs of faltering. For Russia, this buys valuable time. For Ukraine, it could be catastrophic.