According to the anti-Trumpers, the president’s efforts to end the Ukraine war by mediation were a terrible betrayal and now his attempt to drag Vladimir Putin to make peace by stepping up military and economic pressure on Russia is not enough. These critics, especially the Europeans, would be more convincing if they had their own realistic proposals to end hostilities, but they do not.
Trump’s plan – to supply weapons to Ukraine but make the Europeans pay – is sheer genius, at least as a concept. It forces the EU countries and Britain to put their money where their mouth is, rather than allowing them to get away with weak pleas like “we would do more but we just don’t have the weapons”. It fits perfectly with his determination to make Europe shoulder more of the burden for its own problems. And it ought to play well to American voters, among whom continued US funding of Ukraine’s defence is not popular.
A key element of the proposal is to assist with the defence of Ukrainian cities from dramatically increased Russian missile and drone attacks. Trump said that Patriot interceptors would be sent – and these will likely either be purchased directly from the US or, if quicker, provided from Nato nations’ own stocks and replaced.
Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister, however, said it would take months before the first Patriots could be sent to Ukraine, which evidently means Berlin is not willing to transfer its own missile systems.
He must of course worry about Germany’s own air defence, so it is a balance of risk between a hypothetical threat and an actual constant barrage of attack. In any case, there is not an unlimited supply of Patriot missiles, which cost about $4 million a shot, and are not the answer to Russian drone swarms which have been doing the most damage. But his comments were a telling indication of where Europe’s priorities still lie, despite the continent’s supposed insistence that it is prepared to do whatever it takes to help Ukraine win.
As far as we know, Trump has not yet committed to sending offensive weapons, but in a recent call with Volodymyr Zelensky, he reportedly asked if Ukraine could hit Moscow and St Petersburg. Perhaps Trump had in mind last month’s Israeli air campaign against Iran’s drone and missile capabilities. Zelensky’s response was effectively a Churchillian “give us the tools and we will finish the job”.
This is critical: imposing restraints on Kyiv against attacking targets inside sovereign Russian territory has been gravely damaging to Ukraine’s own fortunes. As important as protection of its cities is, the provision of large quantities of long-range offensive weapons and the freedom to use them would probably have the most decisive impact on Putin’s decision-making, both in the short and long term.
Making it harder for him to hit Ukrainian cities due to improved defences is not going to make him rethink. Smouldering military bases, government buildings and energy installations on a large scale might well do so. The Kremlin has pretty much made that concern clear, saying that Patriots do not cross a red line. But it angrily threatened Chancellor Merz that Germany supplying Taurus long-range missiles would bring it directly into the war.
Trump’s proposed new secondary tariff regime against countries that do business with Russia could also have a persuasive impact, with the Russian economy already under great stress. The EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, however, said that Trump’s 50-day deadline for Putin to come to the table is “very long”. Perhaps Kallas, then, should immediately impose EU secondary tariffs, rather than shouting criticism from the sidelines? We all know that won’t happen.
Trump has correctly adjusted his policy towards Ukraine to account for Putin’s unwillingness to seek peace. It might be that the Russian leader will never accept a settlement, especially one clearly imposed by the US president. Could he even survive that eventuality, given the extent to which he has tied his own personal legitimacy with prosecuting a war to wipe Ukraine off the map?
But Trump’s latest gambit still has a chance of success, supposing that Putin believes that the Europeans are also serious about forcing Russia to the negotiating table. Sadly, they are failing to consistently indicate that they are. Do they really want to help Ukraine win its war, or do they just want America to do it for them?
According to the anti-Trumpers, the president’s efforts to end the Ukraine war by mediation were a terrible betrayal and now his attempt to drag Vladimir Putin to make peace by stepping up military and economic pressure on Russia is not enough. These critics, especially the Europeans, would be more convincing if they had their own realistic proposals to end hostilities, but they do not.
Trump’s plan – to supply weapons to Ukraine but make the Europeans pay – is sheer genius, at least as a concept. It forces the EU countries and Britain to put their money where their mouth is, rather than allowing them to get away with weak pleas like “we would do more but we just don’t have the weapons”. It fits perfectly with his determination to make Europe shoulder more of the burden for its own problems. And it ought to play well to American voters, among whom continued US funding of Ukraine’s defence is not popular.
A key element of the proposal is to assist with the defence of Ukrainian cities from dramatically increased Russian missile and drone attacks. Trump said that Patriot interceptors would be sent – and these will likely either be purchased directly from the US or, if quicker, provided from Nato nations’ own stocks and replaced.
Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister, however, said it would take months before the first Patriots could be sent to Ukraine, which evidently means Berlin is not willing to transfer its own missile systems.
He must of course worry about Germany’s own air defence, so it is a balance of risk between a hypothetical threat and an actual constant barrage of attack. In any case, there is not an unlimited supply of Patriot missiles, which cost about $4 million a shot, and are not the answer to Russian drone swarms which have been doing the most damage. But his comments were a telling indication of where Europe’s priorities still lie, despite the continent’s supposed insistence that it is prepared to do whatever it takes to help Ukraine win.
As far as we know, Trump has not yet committed to sending offensive weapons, but in a recent call with Volodymyr Zelensky, he reportedly asked if Ukraine could hit Moscow and St Petersburg. Perhaps Trump had in mind last month’s Israeli air campaign against Iran’s drone and missile capabilities. Zelensky’s response was effectively a Churchillian “give us the tools and we will finish the job”.
This is critical: imposing restraints on Kyiv against attacking targets inside sovereign Russian territory has been gravely damaging to Ukraine’s own fortunes. As important as protection of its cities is, the provision of large quantities of long-range offensive weapons and the freedom to use them would probably have the most decisive impact on Putin’s decision-making, both in the short and long term.
Making it harder for him to hit Ukrainian cities due to improved defences is not going to make him rethink. Smouldering military bases, government buildings and energy installations on a large scale might well do so. The Kremlin has pretty much made that concern clear, saying that Patriots do not cross a red line. But it angrily threatened Chancellor Merz that Germany supplying Taurus long-range missiles would bring it directly into the war.
Trump’s proposed new secondary tariff regime against countries that do business with Russia could also have a persuasive impact, with the Russian economy already under great stress. The EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, however, said that Trump’s 50-day deadline for Putin to come to the table is “very long”. Perhaps Kallas, then, should immediately impose EU secondary tariffs, rather than shouting criticism from the sidelines? We all know that won’t happen.
Trump has correctly adjusted his policy towards Ukraine to account for Putin’s unwillingness to seek peace. It might be that the Russian leader will never accept a settlement, especially one clearly imposed by the US president. Could he even survive that eventuality, given the extent to which he has tied his own personal legitimacy with prosecuting a war to wipe Ukraine off the map?
But Trump’s latest gambit still has a chance of success, supposing that Putin believes that the Europeans are also serious about forcing Russia to the negotiating table. Sadly, they are failing to consistently indicate that they are. Do they really want to help Ukraine win its war, or do they just want America to do it for them?