The Trump plan represents the best hope so far for ending the war in Gaza, giving some prospect of normality and prosperity for the people of Gaza and of developing a sustainable peace in the wider Middle East. It has also completely turned the tables on Hamas. With Israel and Arab countries on board, the ball is now entirely in Hamas’s court and their response will show the world what many of us have long known: it is not Israel that has kept this war going but Hamas. War or peace is in their hands as it has been from the start.
We will have to see which path they take. But if anything, now is the time not just for Arab countries but for Western nations to step up to the mark. Those that are in a position to do so need to pile the pressure on to Hamas and give them no quarter. We need to hear no more encouragement of Hamas, no more rewarding them by recognising a Palestinian state and no more unjust lashing out against Israel. Instead Hamas need to be forced to understand they are isolated and no longer have any friends. If that kind of action had been taken from the beginning we might have been where we are long before now with many lives saved.
The only reason we have finally got to this potential turning point is Israel’s unrelenting prosecution of its defensive war. Those who argued for an earlier withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, such as Sir Keir Starmer, would have seen merely a temporary cessation with an inevitable return to violence. Israel’s offensive against Hamas in Rafah, its seizure of the border with Egypt and its current assault in Gaza City have all made major contributions to the current possibility of peace. Absent such overwhelming military pressure there is no chance that Hamas would even consider going along with this deal.
The IDF strikes against Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas in Qatar, as well as the far-reaching repercussions in Syria, have also been pivotal. Not only have they helped isolate and degrade Hamas, they have also very clearly demonstrated to the world Prime Minister Netanyahu’s unshakeable resolve in defending his country. There is no doubt that played a major role in persuading the Arab countries and Turkey to get on board with Trump’s plan.
The proposals meet all of Israel’s long-standing objectives for this war. Hamas will be defeated and disarmed, the hostages will be returned, Hamas will have no governing function in Gaza and the territory will no longer present a threat to Israel.
Indeed the main elements of the plan have been under discussion in Jerusalem almost since the beginning of the war. It effectively amounts to the Netanyahu government’s own original plan and clearly illustrates the extent of cooperation and rapport with the Trump Administration. Some of the previously leaked provisions of the 20 point plan have been adjusted, no doubt following close discussions in the last few days. Inevitably for such a major proposal there are many unknowns, a plethora of details to resolve and numerous loose ends to tie up.
And of course there are some issues that will be unpalatable in some quarters within Israel, not least the agreement for release and amnesty for Hamas terrorists including some who took part in the 7th October slaughter. A role for the Palestinian Authority is also envisaged, something previously excluded by Netanyahu. However that has been conditioned on fundamental reform of the PA including an end to their incentivisation of terrorism, anti-Israel radicalisation, prosecution of legal warfare and opposition to the existence of the Jewish State. The likelihood of such reform is hard to envisage but if not that means, under the plan, they will be excluded from any role in Gaza.
We await Hamas’s response. Even if they do go along with it, we can also expect them to procrastinate and renege on whatever they do agree. The chances of Hamas effectively capitulating may not be high, especially if there is not hard pressure placed upon them by their international allies including Qatar and Turkey. If Hamas does resist this historic diplomatic overture, in either the immediate or medium term, then Israel will retain the right to finish them off on the battlefield with full US backing. As Netanyahu said in Washington today, this war can either be ended the easy way or the hard way.
The Trump plan represents the best hope so far for ending the war in Gaza, giving some prospect of normality and prosperity for the people of Gaza and of developing a sustainable peace in the wider Middle East. It has also completely turned the tables on Hamas. With Israel and Arab countries on board, the ball is now entirely in Hamas’s court and their response will show the world what many of us have long known: it is not Israel that has kept this war going but Hamas. War or peace is in their hands as it has been from the start.
We will have to see which path they take. But if anything, now is the time not just for Arab countries but for Western nations to step up to the mark. Those that are in a position to do so need to pile the pressure on to Hamas and give them no quarter. We need to hear no more encouragement of Hamas, no more rewarding them by recognising a Palestinian state and no more unjust lashing out against Israel. Instead Hamas need to be forced to understand they are isolated and no longer have any friends. If that kind of action had been taken from the beginning we might have been where we are long before now with many lives saved.
The only reason we have finally got to this potential turning point is Israel’s unrelenting prosecution of its defensive war. Those who argued for an earlier withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, such as Sir Keir Starmer, would have seen merely a temporary cessation with an inevitable return to violence. Israel’s offensive against Hamas in Rafah, its seizure of the border with Egypt and its current assault in Gaza City have all made major contributions to the current possibility of peace. Absent such overwhelming military pressure there is no chance that Hamas would even consider going along with this deal.
The IDF strikes against Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas in Qatar, as well as the far-reaching repercussions in Syria, have also been pivotal. Not only have they helped isolate and degrade Hamas, they have also very clearly demonstrated to the world Prime Minister Netanyahu’s unshakeable resolve in defending his country. There is no doubt that played a major role in persuading the Arab countries and Turkey to get on board with Trump’s plan.
The proposals meet all of Israel’s long-standing objectives for this war. Hamas will be defeated and disarmed, the hostages will be returned, Hamas will have no governing function in Gaza and the territory will no longer present a threat to Israel.
Indeed the main elements of the plan have been under discussion in Jerusalem almost since the beginning of the war. It effectively amounts to the Netanyahu government’s own original plan and clearly illustrates the extent of cooperation and rapport with the Trump Administration. Some of the previously leaked provisions of the 20 point plan have been adjusted, no doubt following close discussions in the last few days. Inevitably for such a major proposal there are many unknowns, a plethora of details to resolve and numerous loose ends to tie up.
And of course there are some issues that will be unpalatable in some quarters within Israel, not least the agreement for release and amnesty for Hamas terrorists including some who took part in the 7th October slaughter. A role for the Palestinian Authority is also envisaged, something previously excluded by Netanyahu. However that has been conditioned on fundamental reform of the PA including an end to their incentivisation of terrorism, anti-Israel radicalisation, prosecution of legal warfare and opposition to the existence of the Jewish State. The likelihood of such reform is hard to envisage but if not that means, under the plan, they will be excluded from any role in Gaza.
We await Hamas’s response. Even if they do go along with it, we can also expect them to procrastinate and renege on whatever they do agree. The chances of Hamas effectively capitulating may not be high, especially if there is not hard pressure placed upon them by their international allies including Qatar and Turkey. If Hamas does resist this historic diplomatic overture, in either the immediate or medium term, then Israel will retain the right to finish them off on the battlefield with full US backing. As Netanyahu said in Washington today, this war can either be ended the easy way or the hard way.