Another day, another Trump flip-flop on Ukraine. Last week, America’s department of defence cut vital supplies of rockets, artillery and Patriot air defence missiles to Ukraine. This week, the Patriot deliveries were suddenly back on – and Trump was once again dumping on the Kremlin.
“I’m not happy with Putin … because he’s killing a lot of people,” the US President told a cabinet meeting this week. “We get a lot of bulls–t thrown at us by Putin. You want to know the truth. He is very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”
As Trump spoke the words CIA director John Ratcliffe – one of the few defenders of Ukraine left in Trump’s cabinet – grinned and bowed his head as though overwhelmed with relief. For a short while, at least, Kyiv would have the means to fight off the record numbers of missiles and drones that Russia is firing.
Foreign policy by whim is the Trump way. One phone call with Putin goes well, by Trump’s lights, and he’s ready to bully Volodymyr Zelensky into dropping all his red lines and signing an armistice. Another chat with the Kremlin goes badly, and Trump moots imposing more sanctions on Russia. “I’m looking at it very strongly,” replied the American president when asked if he would back a draconian bill prepared by the US Senate that would shut down Russia’s ability to export oil and gas.
Ironically, it may be the Kremlin-controlled Russian state press that offers the most accurate analysis of Trump’s diplomacy. “Trump changes his mind on key issues as easily as he changes shoes,” trumpeted a headline in Moskovsky Komsomolets.
But Trump’s apparent flip-flopping conceals a deeper and more consistent truth, and it’s not good news for Ukraine. As he has repeatedly says, he believes that if he had been in charge in 2022 Putin would never have invaded – though whether that’s because he would have defended Ukraine more resolutely or whether he would have offered Putin concessions such as making sure Kyiv stayed out of Nato forever isn’t clear.
Trump repeatedly emphasises that he believes that a negotiation is the only way to stop the war – which will inevitably entail partition of the country and some concessions to Putin’s demands to have Ukraine inside Moscow’s sphere of influence. Most importantly of all, Trump has made it crystal clear that he believes that pouring more offensive weapons into Ukraine will only prolong its agony.
For Kyiv, the bottom line is that its wealthiest and most powerful military and economic sponsor is pulling down the shutter. And for all Europe’s promises of money, it’s only the US that can provide key high-tech weaponry such as Patriots and HIMARS rocket artillery.
In practical terms, that leaves Ukraine’s war machine running on fumes, in the form of holdover aid approved by the Biden administration that will still be in the pipeline for some six months to come.
Plus, Trump has signalled that he’s willing to help Zelensky to defend his cities against Russian missile attack. “They have to be able to defend themselves,” Trump said at a recent Washington dinner in honour of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
So while every Trump cap-locked “VLAD, STOP!” outburst at Putin garners headlines, the fundamental direction of Washington’s policy remains focused on managing Ukraine’s effective surrender, not on crushing Putin’s war machine.
The Senate’s draft sanctions bill would essentially declare economic war on every country that imports Russian oil and gas. That includes China, India and Europe – which since the beginning of the war had paid billions more into the Kremlin’s coffers in the form of oil payments than it has donated to Ukraine.
Such a policy would, in short order, blow up the world economy and send oil prices through the roof. The Senate sanctions bill is the legislative equivalent of a nuclear bomb – it exists as a performative threat, never to actually be used.
In the meantime, Trump will continue to pretend to be angry at Putin, and Putin will pretend to be serious about peace talks. But the war will continue for exactly as long as Putin wants it to, and Trump is unwilling to do what it takes to change that.
Another day, another Trump flip-flop on Ukraine. Last week, America’s department of defence cut vital supplies of rockets, artillery and Patriot air defence missiles to Ukraine. This week, the Patriot deliveries were suddenly back on – and Trump was once again dumping on the Kremlin.
“I’m not happy with Putin … because he’s killing a lot of people,” the US President told a cabinet meeting this week. “We get a lot of bulls–t thrown at us by Putin. You want to know the truth. He is very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”
As Trump spoke the words CIA director John Ratcliffe – one of the few defenders of Ukraine left in Trump’s cabinet – grinned and bowed his head as though overwhelmed with relief. For a short while, at least, Kyiv would have the means to fight off the record numbers of missiles and drones that Russia is firing.
Foreign policy by whim is the Trump way. One phone call with Putin goes well, by Trump’s lights, and he’s ready to bully Volodymyr Zelensky into dropping all his red lines and signing an armistice. Another chat with the Kremlin goes badly, and Trump moots imposing more sanctions on Russia. “I’m looking at it very strongly,” replied the American president when asked if he would back a draconian bill prepared by the US Senate that would shut down Russia’s ability to export oil and gas.
Ironically, it may be the Kremlin-controlled Russian state press that offers the most accurate analysis of Trump’s diplomacy. “Trump changes his mind on key issues as easily as he changes shoes,” trumpeted a headline in Moskovsky Komsomolets.
But Trump’s apparent flip-flopping conceals a deeper and more consistent truth, and it’s not good news for Ukraine. As he has repeatedly says, he believes that if he had been in charge in 2022 Putin would never have invaded – though whether that’s because he would have defended Ukraine more resolutely or whether he would have offered Putin concessions such as making sure Kyiv stayed out of Nato forever isn’t clear.
Trump repeatedly emphasises that he believes that a negotiation is the only way to stop the war – which will inevitably entail partition of the country and some concessions to Putin’s demands to have Ukraine inside Moscow’s sphere of influence. Most importantly of all, Trump has made it crystal clear that he believes that pouring more offensive weapons into Ukraine will only prolong its agony.
For Kyiv, the bottom line is that its wealthiest and most powerful military and economic sponsor is pulling down the shutter. And for all Europe’s promises of money, it’s only the US that can provide key high-tech weaponry such as Patriots and HIMARS rocket artillery.
In practical terms, that leaves Ukraine’s war machine running on fumes, in the form of holdover aid approved by the Biden administration that will still be in the pipeline for some six months to come.
Plus, Trump has signalled that he’s willing to help Zelensky to defend his cities against Russian missile attack. “They have to be able to defend themselves,” Trump said at a recent Washington dinner in honour of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
So while every Trump cap-locked “VLAD, STOP!” outburst at Putin garners headlines, the fundamental direction of Washington’s policy remains focused on managing Ukraine’s effective surrender, not on crushing Putin’s war machine.
The Senate’s draft sanctions bill would essentially declare economic war on every country that imports Russian oil and gas. That includes China, India and Europe – which since the beginning of the war had paid billions more into the Kremlin’s coffers in the form of oil payments than it has donated to Ukraine.
Such a policy would, in short order, blow up the world economy and send oil prices through the roof. The Senate sanctions bill is the legislative equivalent of a nuclear bomb – it exists as a performative threat, never to actually be used.
In the meantime, Trump will continue to pretend to be angry at Putin, and Putin will pretend to be serious about peace talks. But the war will continue for exactly as long as Putin wants it to, and Trump is unwilling to do what it takes to change that.