President Donald Trump is on the cusp of a diplomatic breakthrough to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff travelled to Moscow on August 6, Trump expressed optimism about a trilateral summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky to facilitate a ceasefire.
Trump’s grand bargain announcement is his trademark, but will it succeed? The early signals suggest that Trump faces an uphill struggle. Although Russia claimed that Witkoff’s visit was “constructive,” even Trump was forced to admit that it produced no major breakthroughs. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov expressed openness to a Putin-Trump bilateral meeting but did not endorse Witkoff’s proposal to include Zelensky in the discussions.
While Russia refrained from large-scale drone and missile strikes on Kyiv this week, its summer offensive is firmly underway. Russian troops are incrementally advancing in northeastern Sumy and on the Donetsk battlegrounds of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.
The best-case near-term scenario remains a temporary aerial ceasefire. Yet even this de-escalation could play into Russia’s hands. In recent days, Ukrainian drones have disrupted air travel in Moscow, ignited a fire around Volgograd railway station and damaged a key oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai. A respite of the economic disruptions caused from these strikes would be beneficial for Russia as it mitigates the consequences of US secondary tariffs and sanctions.
Despite these long odds and the possibility of near-term public humiliations, Trump remains devoted to ending the Ukraine war. There are many reasons for his unswerving focus on Ukraine. Trump’s rhetoric frames his commitment in humanitarian terms as he wants to stop the senseless killing of thousands of young people every week. Trump also wants to end a war that believes his predecessor Joe Biden enabled and cement his legacy as a peace president.
Aside from these sentimental and egoistic reasons, Trump also has a geostrategic rationale for ending the war in Ukraine. The Trump administration wants to redirect its focus on winning the spiralling geopolitical confrontation against China. It sees peace in Europe as a prerequisite for that reorientation and regards Russia as a potentially useful partner in the US’s containment efforts against China.
Due in part to the US’s diverted focus, Trump has been forced to tread carefully in his trade war with China. Trump has eased export restrictions on technologically sophisticated US chips to China and exercised uncharacteristic efforts to avoid provoking Beijing. The cancellation of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-Te’s transit through New York underscored Trump’s focus on avoiding a repeat of the tariff-induced escalations of the early spring.
Trump’s closest allies have tried to spin these concessions as shows of strength against China. AI advisor David Sacks argues that easing export restrictions will make China more dependent on US chips and blunt its competitive edge. Nonetheless, the perception lingers that Trump is trying to appease China and appears more eager than President Xi Jinping to have an in-person meeting on a comprehensive trade deal.
The Trump administration is convinced that ending the Ukraine war will give the US the bandwidth to pursue a more confrontational stance towards China. Secretary of State Marco Rubio depicted the Ukraine conflict as a US-Russia proxy war and Under Secretary of Defence Elbridge Colby believes that this proxy war is undermining US efforts to thwart Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region. Getting Europe to purchase US weapons for Ukraine frees up financial capacity to tackle the Chinese threat and ending the Ukraine war will allow US defence-industrial supply chains to follow suit.
As the US sharpens its decade-and-a-half-long defensive pivot to Asia, Trump sees Russia as a potential long-term partner. The case for a “reverse Kissinger” courtship of Russia based on Moscow’s latent frustrations with economic overdependence on China and the surrender of great power status that accompanies to it. While Russia hails its no-limits partnership with China in multilateral forums, it chafes at Beijing’s efforts to capitalise on its diminished influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
The Kremlin is attuned to Trump’s vision and actively seeks to exploit it. Russian Direct Investment Fund chief Kirill Dmitriev’s proposals for Arctic cooperation with the US and enticing promotions of Russian rare earth metals align with Trump’s world-view.
The geo-strategic vision that underpins Trump’s pursuit of peace in Ukraine is not without its logical fallacies. While most Russians still see themselves as European, Russian foreign policy is firmly enmeshed with the collective non-West. This makes diluting Russia’s partnership with China and courting the US a difficult proposition. The perception that Trump is willing to reward Russian aggression in Ukraine could embolden China, even if US containment efforts towards Beijing intensify after a peace deal.
Trump’s combination of economic threats and diplomatic engagement with Russia align with his time-tested playbook. They could be the stepping stone for a new China-centric era in US foreign policy.
President Donald Trump is on the cusp of a diplomatic breakthrough to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff travelled to Moscow on August 6, Trump expressed optimism about a trilateral summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky to facilitate a ceasefire.
Trump’s grand bargain announcement is his trademark, but will it succeed? The early signals suggest that Trump faces an uphill struggle. Although Russia claimed that Witkoff’s visit was “constructive,” even Trump was forced to admit that it produced no major breakthroughs. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov expressed openness to a Putin-Trump bilateral meeting but did not endorse Witkoff’s proposal to include Zelensky in the discussions.
While Russia refrained from large-scale drone and missile strikes on Kyiv this week, its summer offensive is firmly underway. Russian troops are incrementally advancing in northeastern Sumy and on the Donetsk battlegrounds of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.
The best-case near-term scenario remains a temporary aerial ceasefire. Yet even this de-escalation could play into Russia’s hands. In recent days, Ukrainian drones have disrupted air travel in Moscow, ignited a fire around Volgograd railway station and damaged a key oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai. A respite of the economic disruptions caused from these strikes would be beneficial for Russia as it mitigates the consequences of US secondary tariffs and sanctions.
Despite these long odds and the possibility of near-term public humiliations, Trump remains devoted to ending the Ukraine war. There are many reasons for his unswerving focus on Ukraine. Trump’s rhetoric frames his commitment in humanitarian terms as he wants to stop the senseless killing of thousands of young people every week. Trump also wants to end a war that believes his predecessor Joe Biden enabled and cement his legacy as a peace president.
Aside from these sentimental and egoistic reasons, Trump also has a geostrategic rationale for ending the war in Ukraine. The Trump administration wants to redirect its focus on winning the spiralling geopolitical confrontation against China. It sees peace in Europe as a prerequisite for that reorientation and regards Russia as a potentially useful partner in the US’s containment efforts against China.
Due in part to the US’s diverted focus, Trump has been forced to tread carefully in his trade war with China. Trump has eased export restrictions on technologically sophisticated US chips to China and exercised uncharacteristic efforts to avoid provoking Beijing. The cancellation of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-Te’s transit through New York underscored Trump’s focus on avoiding a repeat of the tariff-induced escalations of the early spring.
Trump’s closest allies have tried to spin these concessions as shows of strength against China. AI advisor David Sacks argues that easing export restrictions will make China more dependent on US chips and blunt its competitive edge. Nonetheless, the perception lingers that Trump is trying to appease China and appears more eager than President Xi Jinping to have an in-person meeting on a comprehensive trade deal.
The Trump administration is convinced that ending the Ukraine war will give the US the bandwidth to pursue a more confrontational stance towards China. Secretary of State Marco Rubio depicted the Ukraine conflict as a US-Russia proxy war and Under Secretary of Defence Elbridge Colby believes that this proxy war is undermining US efforts to thwart Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region. Getting Europe to purchase US weapons for Ukraine frees up financial capacity to tackle the Chinese threat and ending the Ukraine war will allow US defence-industrial supply chains to follow suit.
As the US sharpens its decade-and-a-half-long defensive pivot to Asia, Trump sees Russia as a potential long-term partner. The case for a “reverse Kissinger” courtship of Russia based on Moscow’s latent frustrations with economic overdependence on China and the surrender of great power status that accompanies to it. While Russia hails its no-limits partnership with China in multilateral forums, it chafes at Beijing’s efforts to capitalise on its diminished influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
The Kremlin is attuned to Trump’s vision and actively seeks to exploit it. Russian Direct Investment Fund chief Kirill Dmitriev’s proposals for Arctic cooperation with the US and enticing promotions of Russian rare earth metals align with Trump’s world-view.
The geo-strategic vision that underpins Trump’s pursuit of peace in Ukraine is not without its logical fallacies. While most Russians still see themselves as European, Russian foreign policy is firmly enmeshed with the collective non-West. This makes diluting Russia’s partnership with China and courting the US a difficult proposition. The perception that Trump is willing to reward Russian aggression in Ukraine could embolden China, even if US containment efforts towards Beijing intensify after a peace deal.
Trump’s combination of economic threats and diplomatic engagement with Russia align with his time-tested playbook. They could be the stepping stone for a new China-centric era in US foreign policy.